Many people see a rate cut and immediately think the market will go up, but in reality, what really stirs the market is often not the rate cut decision itself, but what that man—Powell—says half an hour after the announcement.

If you look back at past records, you'll find that this scenario has played out several times: as soon as the rate decision is released, the market surges, but then, at the press conference, Powell makes an offhand remark and the market immediately reverses, with a V-shaped move that leaves people stunned.

This time, things might be even more subtle. Now that the interest rate has dropped to the neutral range of 3.5%, calling it "tight" is a bit of a stretch. But the problem is, inflation is still lingering at 3%, which is still some distance from the target. More importantly, Powell has made it clear before that he doesn't want to start the rate cut cycle too early. The market is wishfully hoping for more liquidity, while the Fed is playing hard to get—the expectation gap is huge.

So it's quite possible that Powell will throw cold water on the market in his speech, telling everyone not to get their hopes up.

Remember the timing: the rate decision comes out at 3:00 a.m. on Thursday, and Powell starts speaking at 3:30 a.m. The true market direction is often set in that half-hour window.

If the speech is hawkish, the market will realize that subsequent rate cuts won't come so easily, expectations for liquidity will be dialed down, and risk assets could take a hard hit. The market is already weak, sentiment is at a low point, and another blow could make the volatility even more intense.

But if you look at the bigger picture, the real turning point might come in the second half of the year. Stimulus expectations from the political cycle, along with the possibility of a new long-term liquidity cycle starting next year, are all variables worth waiting for.

To put it bluntly, the darkest stage before dawn may be these next few months. The bull market isn't dead—it's just tired and taking a break. Real big moves in the market are never the result of impulsive gambling; they're forged patiently over time.