#美国终止政府停摆危机 December 8th, Bitcoin Evening Market Review and Trading Ideas

Let's talk about a few key factors in the recent market. The Fed's QE exit is a done deal, and the market is still digesting an 85%-90% probability of a rate cut within the year, which is bullish for Bitcoin in the mid-term. On the flip side, the probability of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is approaching 90%, which could trigger a chain reaction of carry trade unwinding, so overall funding sentiment has actually been quite cautious lately.

From the candlestick chart perspective, things look a bit conflicted. On the daily chart, Bitcoin has broken above the EMA15 (the trend line at 90,800), and the MACD bars are expanding upward, signaling some short-term bullishness. The problem is, the EMA30 and the Fibonacci retracement line are forming a wall at the 93,600-94,200 area, and on the weekly chart, price is still stuck in the 90,000-95,000 consolidation range.

On-chain data is pretty solid—Bitcoin net outflows from exchanges have reached 668,000 coins, and the proportion of long-term locked-up coins is close to 70%, so the circulating supply is indeed tight. However, new inflows from ETFs are losing momentum, and the selling pressure at higher levels hasn't been fully absorbed yet.

**What about the short- and mid-term outlook?**

Tonight, it's highly likely to keep consolidating in the 90,000-93,000 range. For a breakout to count, Bitcoin needs to hold above 93,000 with volume to support it; if it breaks below 90,000, the next support is at 88,000. Unless there's a clear directional signal, instead of guessing a one-sided move, it's more reliable to "sell high, buy low" within this range for more consistent results.

**Specific trading ideas (including stop-loss):**

For long positions, focus on buying the dips, not chasing upward moves. Entry can be considered in the 90,500-91,000 area, which is a confluence zone of EMA15 support and a round number. If there’s an extreme pullback, you can add more at 89,500. The final stop-loss should be set at 89,000—if that breaks, it means the short-term bullish thesis has failed and you should exit decisively.

For targets, the first stage is 92,000-92,500 (upper band of the 4-hour chart). If price pushes through that, hold a portion of your position for a move to 93,000-93,500, but remember to take profits in batches—don’t get greedy.