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**Behind Rate Cut Expectations, Liquidity Reality Is the Main Show**

The market widely expects the Fed to cut rates again this week, but what truly determines market direction actually lies elsewhere. After the end of quantitative tightening, how to manage that $6.5 trillion balance sheet is the real key to the direction of liquidity.

"On the surface, interest rates are constraining the market, but their actual impact is far less direct," says Michael Kelly, Head of Multi-Asset at PineBridge. US stocks have risen nearly 17% this year, and the wealth effect is in play. The real driving force behind this is balance sheet policy, which is supporting the consumption and confidence of the wealthy.

Meanwhile, high rates are squeezing the survival space of small businesses and lower-income residents. Credit card data make it clear: the rich are sustaining consumption, while the poor are drowning in debt—the K-shaped divergence is becoming more pronounced.

Adding insult to injury, while everyone is waiting for rate cuts, the 10-year US Treasury yield has actually spiked to 4.14%, so borrowing remains expensive. What the market truly wants to know is whether the Fed will launch a new round of asset purchases.

BofA’s forecast is interesting: starting in January, they may buy $45 billion per month to replenish reserves. Vanguard, on the other hand, thinks asset purchases will be moderate, at $15–20 billion per month. That sounds routine, but the signal it sends is significant.

Kelly expects a 25 basis point cut this week, bringing rates close to the neutral range. Here’s the issue—while the Fed is preparing for “liquidity injection” and balance sheet expansion, it’s proceeding with rate cuts in a slow, incremental way. Is this caution, or does it hint at bigger uncertainties brewing beneath the surface? This liquidity saga is just getting started.