📊 12.9 Gold Early Market Commentary by Jin Jingwen: Opportunities Hidden in Volatility, 2026 Target Aiming for $5,000!

In the early Asian session, spot gold continued Monday’s cautious pace, fluctuating within a narrow range and trading near $4,192 at the time of writing. Reviewing yesterday’s performance, spot gold slipped by 0.2% to close at $4,190.48, while US gold futures settlement price fell 0.6% to $4,217.7. With the upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting, the market has entered a brief wait-and-see period, and investors are focusing on Powell’s latest statements, trying to capture subtle shifts in policy direction.

Current gold market volatility is driven by a confluence of critical factors. The core variable remains the direction of Fed policy; the tug-of-war between hawkish rate cut expectations and inflation data has kept funds cautious ahead of the meeting, putting some short-term pressure on gold prices. Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions, coupled with fluctuations in the US dollar and unexpected events like the earthquake in Japan, continue to support gold’s safe-haven appeal. Notably, the trend of global central banks steadily purchasing gold has never ceased, becoming a “ballast” for the long-term rise in gold prices—even if there is a short-term pullback, robust fundamentals significantly limit the downside.

Market sentiment toward gold’s long-term outlook remains broadly optimistic. Multiple industry experts predict that, as global uncertainties continue to mount, combined with central bank buying and safe-haven demand, gold prices are likely to reach the $5,000 milestone in the first quarter of 2026—a goal that is not out of reach. For investors, the current wait-and-see atmosphere actually presents an excellent opportunity for long-term positioning. With multiple catalysts such as Fed policy outcomes and evolving geopolitical situations, gold, as a “stabilizer in global uncertainty,” will see its hedging value and appreciation potential further highlighted.

Looking ahead to the economic outlook in 2026, the global financial market will still face numerous uncertainties, and gold—thanks to its unique asset attributes—is expected to continue to shine amid volatility. For investors focused on the precious metals market, capturing the long-term trend within short-term fluctuations may help gain an edge in the next market cycle.

Reviewing yesterday’s market specifically, gold showed a “rise first, then fall” volatile pattern: after opening at $4,197.4 in the early session, it quickly surged, hitting a daily high of $4,219.1, but insufficient bullish momentum triggered a strong pullback, with a low of $4,175.9 per ounce and finally closing at $4,190.7. The daily candlestick formed a spindle shape with a longer upper wick than lower, signaling intense struggle between bulls and bears, a lack of clear direction in the market, and a high probability that the range-bound pattern will continue.

From a technical perspective, on the 1-hour chart, gold remains in broad range consolidation, with no effective breakout at key levels above or below; in this environment, chasing rallies or selling into dips is highly inadvisable. Focus on support in the $4,175–$4,170 area—if it stabilizes effectively, short-term rebounds can be positioned accordingly. On the upside, watch resistance near $4,230—if the price is pressured below $4,230 in the early session, short opportunities may arise. The overall trading approach should be to buy low and sell high within the range, with strict stop-loss settings to avoid unnecessary losses from potential breakouts.

Short-term Trading Strategies

• Long opportunity: Buy in the $4,175–$4,170 range when appropriate, set stop-loss at $4,160, with a target of $4,220–$4,230;

• Short opportunity: Sell in the $4,230–$4,235 range when appropriate, set stop-loss at $4,240, with a target of $4,200–$4,190.

Risk Warning

This article is for market analysis only and does not constitute any investment advice. The gold market is highly volatile; investors should make rational decisions based on their own risk tolerance and should not blindly follow the crowd. #美联储降息预测 #SUIETF正式上线 #XAUT