Tonight is destined to be a sleepless night. A wave of major US data is about to hit in quick succession, and the market can barely contain itself.

The schedule is packed: at 8:30 PM, November corporate layoff data kicks things off; at 9:30 PM, all eyes are on the initial jobless claims (the market expects 220,000); at 11 PM, another round—the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index and Factory Orders MoM wrap things up.

But what’s really making people restless is that staggering number: on Polymarket, the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut in December have surged to 94%. That’s basically the market shouting “it’s a done deal.”

Think about it—unless tonight’s employment data comes in explosively strong, it’s hard to break this overwhelmingly one-sided expectation. The dollar has been unusually weak these days, risk assets are all surging, and you’ve seen how ETH and other coins are performing—it’s all propped up by rate cut expectations.

Here’s the question: when everyone is betting in the same direction and expectations are already overflowing, do you still dare to chase? Will tonight’s data be the final spark that completely ignites the market, or is it the turning point where “good news is already priced in and becomes bad news”?

Anyway, I’m ready to just watch the show.