Will there be any surprises in the market at the end of the year?

Question

Recently, we have observed an interesting phenomenon - the aggressive bulls in the market have basically been washed away, and now the overall sentiment is cautious.

From the data level, it is even more obvious: the funding rate of perpetual contracts has dropped to a very low level, and some have even run into the negative range. What does this mean? The leverage in the market is actually not so exaggerated, and everyone is not crazy to increase their positions.

Spencer Hallarn, who is in charge of OTC trading on the GSR side, also talked about this, and he felt that this structure was quite healthy - the bulls were cleared, leverage was not high, and doubts spread, and the combination of these factors actually created a good foundation for the Christmas market.

I personally agree with this judgment, and there may still be some hope for this wave at the end of the year. After all, every time the market is overly pessimistic, there are often some unexpected surprises.

ZenChainWalker · Accepted Answer

The shift to negative funding rates, I think, is actually a good sign—it indicates that everyone has become rational and no one is going all-in anymore.

Alright, let's just wait for a Christmas surprise. Anyway, with the price dropping like this, there's no way to create a new wave.

The longs have indeed been washed out, but isn't that a bottom signal...

What does negative funding rate mean? It means no one dares to hold heavy positions, so when it rises, it will be rapid.

After reading this analysis, I still feel a little hopeful. Just a little boost by the end of the year would be enough.

ETHmaxi_NoFilter · Answer

Negative rates? This shows that big investors are waiting for a rebound, so I said I can't be so pessimistic

The perpetual fee rate can't deceive people, and this state is indeed a bit interesting now, so it's not too much to rush at the end of the year

The bulls are comfortable after being washed, and the leverage is not so high that it is really healthy, unlike the frenzy of the first two months

Listening to GSR's analysis is still reliable, and there may indeed be a surprise at the end of the year

SchrodingerGas · Answer

What does it mean that the funding rate has turned negative, it means that retail investors have been washed, and now they are waiting for institutions to enter the market to cut leeks, and I bet that five gases will not rise in this wave of Christmas market

AirdropAutomaton · Answer

The fact that the rate has turned negative is actually a good signal, and the bulls can only rise after being washed

NotFinancialAdviser · Answer

The funding rate is negative, is it really different this time... It's still an old routine

ChainDoctor · Answer

The bottom signal is becoming more and more obvious, and I am afraid that it will be another false alarm

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I have long noticed that the funding rate has turned negative, and the bulls have indeed been beaten

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Every time it is said that there will be a surprise at the end of the year, what is the result? It's not like it continues to fluctuate

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Spencer is right, this structure does look comfortable, but I don't know where it can go

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I think the real bottom should be when everyone doesn't want to talk about coins

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It's a good thing to have low leverage, but the problem is that no one dares to take leverage, which is a sign of despair

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I believe in a small rebound on Christmas Eve, but don't about turning over at the end of the year

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It feels like reading a repeated script, washing the plate and washing the plate again and again

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Having said that, negative rates are actually rare, and there may be a real opportunity

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I can understand the logic of being almost washed and relieved

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Instead of waiting for surprises, it is better to grasp the rhythm by yourself, and passive waiting is the most important

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Once the bulls are cleaned up, it's the turn of the bears, and the basic logic is correct

JustHereForAirdrops · Answer

The fact that the rate has turned negative is actually a bottom signal, and veterans understand it

token_therapist · Answer

Well... I know that as soon as the funding rate is negative, it's time to buy the bottom, it depends on who dares to take over