🧵 The Federal Reserve Conference Summary… What did they say? And the market situation afterward

1️⃣
The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points…
This is the third cut in 2025.
✔️ The reason? The labor market is starting to tire… and inflation is decreasing slowly.
✔️ The current situation is a delicate balance… a wrong step could raise inflation, and an increase could decrease employment.

2️⃣
The statement was clear:
Don’t expect a rapid pace of cuts, expect only one cut in 2026… provided inflation data improves.
✔️ My view is that today’s cut is about setting the pace… not the start of an easing cycle.
With a strong hint that a limited cut might occur later if employment deteriorates further.

3️⃣
Within the committee, the situation was divided (9–3):
One member wants a larger cut, two oppose the cut.
✔️ The division is clear: the US economy is on a knife’s edge, inflation against the labor market.

4️⃣
The Federal Reserve announced the purchase of short-term T-bills to support liquidity.
Not easing… and not tightening.
This phase I call “precise liquidity surgery” to avoid confusion in banks and markets, which is a good thing.

Waiting for number 5⃣?
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