Bitcoin, which rose just before the FOMC rate cut, signals 'further decline' based on past patterns

Source: DigitalToday Original Title: Bitcoin Rises and Then Falls Before Rate Cut… Past Patterns Hint at ‘Further Decline’ Original Link: https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=612047

Bitcoin temporarily surpassed $94,000 the day before the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) rate decision, showing an upward trend. However, historical data indicates that Bitcoin tends to decline after FOMC meetings.

Cryptocurrency media Cointelegraph analyzed Bitcoin price fluctuations around the 2025 FOMC meetings and suggested that a similar pattern might occur this time as well.

Immediately after the 2025 FOMC meeting, Bitcoin mostly experienced a decline. Following the January 29 meeting, it dropped by 4.58%; after the 25 basis point rate cut on September 17, it fell by 6.90%; and after an additional rate cut on October 29, it declined by 8.00%. The larger drops during rate cuts are attributed to traders pre-emptively buying in anticipation, then realizing gains and selling once the decision is made, creating a systematic pattern.

Leverage positions increased before the meetings, and new capital inflows reached their peak, pushing the market into an overbought condition. This phenomenon was especially prominent in May, July, and September, with even larger declines following the rate cuts announced in September and October. Crypto analysts commented, “FOMC meetings serve more to reset overbought positions than to set direction.”

Historical data confirms that the ‘decline after FOMC’ pattern has been consistent throughout 2025. Considering past instances where the magnitude of adjustments was significant during rate cuts, it is advisable to focus on risk management rather than expecting a quick rebound this time.

Bitcoin price fluctuations immediately after past FOMC meetings:

• June 18: Halted temporarily → -6.36% decline
• July 30: Halted temporarily → -5.62% decline
• September 17: 25bp rate cut → -8.10% decline
• October 29: Additional rate cut → Significant decline