#ETH12月行情预测

Prediction range $3208~$3400
Ethereum (ETH) December Market Outlook: Bullish Momentum Faces Key Test Amid Macro Crosscurrents
The price of Ethereum (ETH) is currently consolidating around the $3,300 level, following a robust upward move. The broader daily chart structure remains decisively bullish, characterized by a sequence of four consecutive positive closes that successfully breached the prior significant resistance near $3,240. This price action has solidified a bullish alignment in key moving averages, with the upper Bollinger Band now acting as a dynamic support zone, suggesting underlying strength persists. However, the market has entered a short-term corrective phase on intraday timeframes, indicating a period of equilibrium as bulls and bears contest pivotal price levels.

Fundamentally, the backdrop for Ethereum continues to strengthen, primarily driven by sustained institutional interest. The recently launched spot ETH ETFs have demonstrated impressive capital attraction, with cumulative inflows for December alone exceeding $425 million. This consistent influx of institutional capital provides a substantial foundation of support, signaling growing mainstream adoption and offering a counterbalance to retail-driven volatility. The flow data underscores a clear vote of confidence from sophisticated investors, anchoring the market's longer-term trajectory.

From a technical perspective, the dominant trend is favorable. The breakout above $3,240 has opened a path toward the next major resistance zone, with our forecast range for December set between **$3,208 and $3,400**. The lower bound represents a crucial support confluence from the moving averages and the previous breakout level, while the upper target aligns with projected extension levels and psychological resistance. Traders should note that while the daily chart is constructive, shorter-term hourly indicators are flashing overbought signals, necessitating this ongoing consolidation or shallow pullback to gather energy for the next potential leg higher.

The most significant near-term risk event is the impending Federal Reserve interest rate decision and subsequent policy statement. While the immediate rate change is unlikely, the market's reaction will hinge on the Fed's guidance regarding the future path of rate cuts into 2025. Any perceived hawkish shift in tone could trigger a risk-off sentiment across global markets, likely resulting in a short-term corrective dip for Ethereum and other digital assets. This event is expected to inject elevated volatility, making prudent risk management essential.

Conclusion and Strategy: The overall setup for Ethereum in December is bullish, supported by strong technicals and powerful institutional inflows. The primary expectation is for ETH to maintain its strength and attempt a grind toward the $3,400 region. However, the convergence with a high-impact macro event mandates caution. **It is strongly recommended to employ strict stop-loss orders and carefully manage position sizes.** The market may experience heightened turbulence following the Fed announcement, but a hold above the $3,200 support would keep the bullish structure intact, setting the stage for a potential year-end rally.