The Federal Reserve has completed its third rate cut of the year, but the real storm comes from the details of the decision. The meeting statement and the “dot plot” suggest that future rate hikes will slow significantly, with only one cut possibly in 2026 and 2027. This “give a candy, then warn that the candy is almost gone” stance instantly dampened the market’s enthusiasm for easing.

The Bitcoin price movement has been a textbook example of intense volatility. After the decision, it initially surged in a pulse to 94,500, but was soon met with frantic selling, dropping straight down to 92,000, with an amplitude of over 2,500. Although it rebounded above 92,000 early in the session, momentum has exhausted itself, and it has now retreated to the critical area around 90,000.

Bitcoin is currently at a very sensitive technical position, with fierce debates between bulls and bears.

Bearish view: Bitcoin on the daily chart has formed a clear bearish flag continuation pattern. This pattern started with the decline from the high of 107,000 in November, and the recent rebound just encountered resistance at the upper boundary at around 93,000.

If the daily closing price effectively breaks below the lower boundary of the flag at around 90,000, it could open the downside space toward the measurement targets of 67,000 to 68,000.

ACD and RSI indicators show that the recent rebound only restored the extremely oversold condition, and the downtrend may not be over yet.

Bullish view: The core logic is the rare three-candle downtrend pattern.

Meanwhile, another rare technical pattern worth noting is the “three-candle down” pattern on the Bitcoin weekly chart. This pattern is generally seen as a strong potential buy signal, indicating the final release of seller strength and the beginning of a trend reversal.

This bullish pattern requires two conditions for confirmation: first, the first weekly K-line after the pattern appears must close higher; second, subsequent prices must break through the high of this bullish candle.

Key resistance: the 94,000 to 96,000 area is the first major resistance to overcome for pattern confirmation. If the weekly chart can hold steady above this area, the rebound space will significantly expand, with the theoretical target even near 141,000.

In summary: the short-term direction of Bitcoin will depend on the struggle between the support at 90,000 and the resistance at 94,000. Before a clear victory is decided, wide-range oscillation may become the norm. $BTC #加密市场反弹