Currently hovering around $3,200, I believe this is a trap to induce short positions. There is a probability of breaking through $3,250-$3,280 within the day and then rushing straight to $3,450-$3,500.

On-chain funds and derivatives data have already provided clear signals.
First, funds and sentiment are secretly going long. Whales are aggressively accumulating at low levels: after a flash crash on the morning of December 11, whales acted intensively. Some whales withdrew 144,000 ETH from Binance at an average price of $3,341, and also transferred $482 million USDC to buy the dip. Large holders like 7 Siblings are also continuously increasing their holdings. Big funds haven't exited; instead, they are using the pullback to accumulate.
Second, the derivatives market hides a long trap. Currently, bullish options on Ethereum account for 64%, with open interest up 10% week-over-week. The long-short ratio is 1.055, reaching a two-month high. Shorts seem to be defending around $3,250-$3,300, but in reality, they are passive entries. Once the sideways consolidation breaks, it could easily trigger a short squeeze.
Meanwhile, ETF funds are supporting the market. Since December, Ethereum ETFs have seen a net inflow of $425 million. Although there are some daily net outflows, long-term allocators are still entering, providing ammunition for a rally.
Looking at the technicals, there will be a sharp move after sideways accumulation. The current $3,200 is at the lower end of a previous dense trading zone. During consolidation, retail traders may mistakenly think the rebound is weak and follow short positions, but in fact, $3,150-$3,200 is a whale accumulation zone with very strong support. Also, on December 10, prices surged to $3,397, and the previous high of $3,447 is not out of reach. The 4-hour chart shows volume shrinking during consolidation, with trading volume shrinking by 60% compared to early trading, indicating a buildup phase. Once broken, a swift surge with increased volume is expected.
Focus on key intraday signals to confirm the three triggers for the trap-and-rally pattern.
First, observe trading volume. During consolidation, volume should decrease (below $1 billion/hour), and upon breaking $3,250, volume should spike (over $1.5 billion/hour), signaling the start of a rally.
Second, watch the long-short ratio. When top traders' long-short ratio exceeds 2.0, it indicates significant short positioning, which could be liquidated at any time.
Third, break through resistance. After stabilizing above $3,280, there is no strong resistance between $3,300-$3,350, and prices will likely rush directly toward $3,447-$3,500.
Operation reference (personal opinion, not investment advice):
Long positions can be lightly entered at $3,200-$3,220 with a stop-loss at $3,150 (below whale accumulation zone). Initial target is $3,350; upon breaking, aim directly for $3,450-$3,500. If the price falls below $3,150 with increased volume, consider delaying entry and wait for strong support at $3,100 to be confirmed.