#美联储联邦公开市场委员会决议 Mid-December, gold prices are showing some interesting movements—consolidation at high levels has become the norm, but in the next fifteen days, a breakout to the upside is highly probable, although there may be some short-term pullbacks.

Let's look at the positive side first. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December and also launched a monthly $40 billion Treasury bond purchase program. Market expectations for further rate cuts have not diminished, which directly reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold, providing support for gold prices. Central banks around the world are also active; their gold purchase enthusiasm continues, and our central bank has been increasing holdings for 13 consecutive months. This strong demand has built a solid bottom for gold prices. From a technical perspective, the situation is even clearer—spot gold prices have broken through the wedge pattern and formed a bullish flag, with a conservative target of $4,343 and an aggressive target of $4,480. Once the key resistance at $4,260 is broken, the main upward wave can be considered confirmed. Additionally, before the Spring Festival, domestic gold shops will replenish inventory, and consumers are eager to buy gold as gifts, which is enough to push short-term gold prices higher.

However, we should be cautious of short-term pullbacks. The RSI is approaching overbought levels. After stabilizing above $4,230 on the 12th, some short-term traders will likely take profits, initially testing the support at $4,200. The US will also release major economic data like non-farm payrolls; if the data exceeds expectations, the rate cut expectations may cool down, and gold prices will need to prepare for a phase of correction. Concentrated profit-taking by speculative funds can also trigger short-term volatility.

Overall, even if gold prices pull back in the next half month, the decline is unlikely to be significant. The $4,150 to $4,180 range has a strong foundation, and the overall upward trend is already set. There is a high probability of pushing towards $4,300 or even higher.