Federal Reserve rate cuts and Powell's speech: Crypto market faces "hawk-dove"争夺

According to the latest news, the Federal Reserve announced a rate cut on December 10, 2025, but Chairman Powell's speech tone leaned more "hawkish," generating a short-term boost and long-term uncertainty for the crypto market. The market is closely watching subsequent actions, especially the end of quantitative tightening(QT), which could become a key catalyst for a new wave of upward cycles.
Key Decision Highlights
FOMC December Meeting
2025-12-10
-25 basis points
Benchmark rate cut
3.50-3.75%
New interest rate target range
9-3
Voting results
Latest developments: December rate cut and Powell’s “hawkish” signals
At the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) meeting on December 10, 2025, the Fed announced a 25 basis point reduction in the benchmark rate, adjusting the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. This is the third consecutive rate cut after October and August, aimed at addressing risks from a slowing labor market.
“Hawkish” signals
Powell stated after the meeting that inflation risks still lean upward, and policy “has no risk-free path,” emphasizing that future decisions will “depend on data.” This means that a rate cut is not guaranteed, and the policy path remains uncertain.
Unexpected measures
Market was surprised to learn that the Fed announced a restart of short-term government bond purchases, starting from Friday, December 12$40 , with plans to buy( billion dollars worth of treasuries each month to address short-term liquidity tensions.
Market reaction analysis
Crypto market short-term outlook
Risk appetite
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Short-term boost
Expectations of rate cuts and balance sheet expansion inject liquidity into the market, benefiting risk assets.
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Long-term uncertainty
The “hawkish” wording suggests policy swings, potentially triggering market adjustments.
Recent key speeches review
Powell’s policy stance is not fixed. Reviewing his recent key speeches helps clarify the evolution of his thinking.
October 15: Indicating liquidity turning point
Powell explicitly pointed out that “downward risks to employment have increased,” and “balance sheet reduction may end in the coming months,” igniting market expectations of easing liquidity, with volatility for main cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum rising to 12%.
August 23: Indicating the start of a rate-cut cycle
At the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, Powell hinted that, due to rising employment risks, the Fed may initiate a rate cut, triggering a strong rebound in the US stock market and market expectations of easing policies.
Summary and outlook
Overall, Powell’s speeches have a complex and multi-dimensional impact on the crypto market. In the short term, rate cuts and potential balance sheet expansion provide liquidity support and boost risk appetite. However, in the long run, his hawkish tone and warnings about inflation risks make the market cautious about future policy paths. Any signals of slowing rate hikes or maintaining high interest rates could trigger adjustments.
For investors, the key is to distinguish between short-term sentiment and long-term fundamentals. The market generally views the Fed’s official ending of quantitative tightening)QT( as an important milestone confirming a loosening cycle. Therefore, investors should closely monitor subsequent meetings’ “dot plots,” economic outlook)SEP(, and Powell’s wording changes during press conferences.
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Between Powell’s “hawkish” and “dovish” stances, the crypto market is engaged in a high-risk game regarding liquidity.)#美联储降息预测 #广场发帖领$50 #加密市场反弹 #参与创作者认证计划月领$10,000