$BTC The rebound is really weak, not even touching 0.382.

Considering previous analyses of U.S. financial policies, I am still very optimistic about the market in the second half of next year, so in the future, I can only go long on BTC and cannot short. However, it’s already December, and the overall market hasn’t shown any significant movement. Time to plan next year’s investment and trading strategies.

Dollar-cost averaging position 70% (long-term hold part)
The original plan was a 4-year DCA position, maintaining a weekly investment pace. Currently, I have persisted for 22 weeks (from August to now without interruption), with a floating loss of 16.89%.
- If BTC drops below $60,000, the DCA cycle will be adjusted to 2 years.
- If BTC drops below $50,000, the DCA cycle will be further shortened to 1 year.
Core principle: Stick to DCA, do not interrupt due to short-term fluctuations, and gradually lower the average cost.

Trading position 30% (trend/short-term part)
All current trading positions have been fully closed, maintaining a neutral stance and patiently waiting for clear signals.
- If BTC effectively breaks through the short-term holder’s cost (STH) and MA120 dual resistance, re-enter long with 3x leverage, with strict stop-loss settings. Over the past few months, the trading position has accumulated a loss of over 20%, but once a trend is established, it could yield multiple returns.
- If the market enters extreme panic (RISK indicator approaching 0), plan to fully buy the dip near $48,000.
- When clear reversal signals appear at major support levels (such as dense trading zones), consider short-term swing trading, controlling position sizes and quick entries/exits.

Overall Strategy
Maintain discipline: emphasize long-term persistence and cost averaging in the DCA part; emphasize waiting for high-probability signals in trading, avoiding frequent operations that could cause further wear. Prioritize risk management and patiently wait for the market to give clear directions before acting.