Key Events of Market Interest Recently

Recent discussions about Ethereum mainly focus on the following directions, covering macro environmental changes and the impact of specific technical updates.

· Wall Street and Regulatory New Narratives
· Main viewpoint: Some analysts believe that a new chain has formed between Wall Street and Washington: U.S. political and economic elites → U.S. Treasuries → Stablecoins/Crypto Wallets → Ethereum + RWA (Real Assets) + L2. The SEC Chair's recent statements about the potential migration of the entire U.S. financial market to blockchain in the coming years have strengthened this expectation.
· Impact analysis: This is seen as a powerful structural bull narrative; traditional financial assets (such as U.S. Treasuries) may eventually be accumulated on Ethereum and its layer 2s through tokenization, creating strong value support.
· Fusaka Upgrade and Deflation Expectations
· Main change: The recent Fusaka upgrade on Ethereum aims to address the issue of insufficient L1 value during L2 development. The upgrade introduces a mechanism that incentivizes L2 activity to pay the minimum data fee, part of which is burned.
· Key indicators: After the upgrade, Blob’s transaction fees became the largest contributor to ETH burning, accounting for up to 98%, with over 1500 ETH burned daily. If L2 activity continues to grow, ETH could re-enter a deflationary state.
· Market Structure and Technical Signals
· Position changes: Market data show that ETH holdings on exchanges are at a historic low, about 10% of the total, indicating less potential selling pressure.
· Market sentiment: After the downturn, leverage in the cryptocurrency industry has fallen to historic lows (e.g., 4%), indicating that panic sentiment has been fully released. Meanwhile, ETH/BTC has maintained consolidation since November; the previous strategy of “long BTC/short ETH” has lost effectiveness.
· Core logic: Currently, the rapid growth of Ethereum (L2) and its impact on the main chain are still unclear. Although funds are flowing into ETH ETFs, their scale and impact may be limited.

Overall, market sentiment toward Ethereum is complex but mostly optimistic:

· The main bullish scenario is based on the “traditional finance on chain” big narrative, value capture from technical upgrades, deflation models, and healthy structures following leverage unwinding.
· Pessimistic or cautious assessments are related to the actual value of L2 growth and the uncertainty about the duration of ETF fund inflows. $ETH