Market Shift Prediction: Gemini's Win Probability Surges to 86%, AI Top Three Reorganize

NullWhisperer · 2025-12-14T07:56:25+00:00

In the Kalshi market, regarding the bet on "Best AI by the end of 2025," Google's Gemini has a winning probability of 86%, while OpenAI's ChatGPT has dropped to 8%. Market trading volume has reached $14.08 million, reflecting participants' reassessment of the capabilities of different AI models, with a current preference for Gemini's technological progress.

NullWhisperer

2025-12-14 07:56:25

Abstract generation in progress

【Block Rhythm】 Prediction Market On Kalshi, there’s an interesting bet titled “What is the best AI by the end of 2025,” and the latest data shows a sudden shift in the situation. Google Gemini’s winning probability has skyrocketed to 86%, OpenAI’s ChatGPT has dropped to 8%, and Elon Musk’s Grok only accounts for 6%.

The trading volume is also quite substantial — this market has already accumulated a trading volume of $14.08 million. To put it into perspective, the situation at the beginning of the year was completely different: back then, ChatGPT was the leader with a 41% chance, Gemini was at 30%, and Grok was only at 14%. The market completely changed its mind in just a year.

How is the final settlement determined? Kalshi will use data from the LM Arena leaderboard as the final authority. In other words, this bet essentially reflects the market’s collective evaluation of the current capabilities of various AI models. From the data changes, it’s clear that people now have more confidence in Gemini’s technological progress.

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CryptoSurvivor

· 12-17 07:18

86%? Gemini is really that powerful? I was criticizing it just last year. It's a bit outrageous for ChatGPT to drop from 41% to 8%. What's going on with OpenAI? A major reshuffle in just one year—this is the fate of the AI industry. Today’s king, tomorrow unemployed.

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NestedFox

· 12-16 22:22

86% Really? Gemini has turned things around, huh? Why did ChatGPT drop so badly?

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CodeZeroBasis

· 12-16 18:35

No hype, no negativity, Gemini really took off this time --- ChatGPT dropped from the boss to 8%, is it outrageous or not... --- Fourteen million dollars poured into this gamble, people in the crypto circle are really daring to play --- If LM Arena is the boss, then it depends on real skills, nothing virtual is useful --- Grok only has 6%, Elon’s face is a bit hard to hold up haha --- Changing your mind after just a year, this is the unreliable part of the prediction market --- Gemini at 86% is so high, it feels like big players are dumping the market later --- To put it simply, the market is just following the trend, whoever is strong is where the money piles up

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SnapshotBot

· 12-15 07:05

Damn, Gemini is directly at 86%? ChatGPT really had a rough year --- Once again, LM Arena calls the shots. Can you trust this ranking? Haha --- Over $14 million in bets. I just want to know if the winners are feeling good now --- Fallen from 41% to 8%, OpenAI is being rubbed into the ground --- Why is Elon’s Grok still not better than ChatGPT? This investment seems a bit risky --- At the beginning of the year, ChatGPT was the king, but it was quickly overtaken by Gemini. The market really changes in an instant --- Prediction markets are just gathering places for gamblers. It’s better to trust your own intuition --- What does 86% mean? It feels like those who bought Gemini are already making a big profit

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IronHeadMiner

· 12-14 08:26

Damn, ChatGPT crashing so badly... Gemini is directly turning the tables and singing the song of the oppressed. People who gamble on this stuff really have spare cash; $14.08 million just to bet on which AI is the strongest. The year-to-year contrast is so big, it shows no one can predict anything haha. Wait, so LM Arena decides everything? Isn't that just the only real theory based on rankings? Grok holding 6% is indeed outrageous, although Elon fans are many.

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CrossChainMessenger

· 12-14 08:25

Damn, Gemini skyrocketed to 86%? How did ChatGPT drop to 8%... --- In just one year, the market sentiment has completely reversed, which is a bit unbelievable. --- Bet $14.08 million just to see AI rankings, Web3 people really know how to play. --- Is LM Arena the boss? Let's see who can really hold up in the end. --- Gemini's turnaround is quite interesting; OpenAI really went offline. --- But the outcome of this gamble won't be known until the end of the year; anything said now is pointless. --- There really are people who believe prediction markets can be accurate... hilarious. --- Google's marketing this time is top-notch, directly built on hype with money.

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Degen4Breakfast

· 12-14 08:22

Gemini directly 86%? This reversal is too outrageous. How did ChatGPT fall to 8%? It was the big boss last year. Kalshi’s betting platform is really hot, pouring in $14.08 million just to bet on who’s the strongest? But honestly, the LM Arena leaderboard speaks for itself, so the results feel a bit like a roll of the dice. Elon’s Grok at just 6%? Feels like a big slap in the face. Can this wave of reversals prove that large models really undergo rapid iteration? The miracle tool of last year is now failing miserably.

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EyeOfTheTokenStorm

· 12-14 08:19

What is the probability of 86%? This is a typical bottoming reversal signal. The market has flipped from ChatGPT's dominance to Gemini in just a year. The underlying logic deserves careful consideration. LM Arena as the settlement standard is interesting, indicating that the betting is truly based on actual ranking data, not marketing concepts. From a quantitative perspective, a trading volume of 14.08 million actually reflects the market’s strong confidence in this expectation. Such a consensus often means that risks have been released. ChatGPT dropped from 41% to 8%, and this decline reminds me of major turning points in certain historical cycles. But the question is—does Gemini really have such strong technical fundamentals? Or is the market again becoming collectively emotional? What needs to be guarded against is that overly one-sided bets can often signal an upcoming reversal.

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PrivateKeyParanoia

· 12-14 08:17

Gemini skyrocketed from 30% to 86%, this rebound is too intense, it feels like the market is speculating Is ChatGPT really a failure? Or is it just that Kalshi and these people look down on OpenAI 14.08 million USD is betting on this, well, people really dare to risk everything Does LM Arena call the shots? Then just wait for the leaderboard update, it's too early to draw conclusions now Grok dropped to 6%, how angry must Elon be

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