$MERL The recent performance has indeed been eye-catching, with prices soaring significantly and market capitalization jumping into the top 100, which has filled many investors with anticipation and even fantasies of reaching new all-time highs.

However, after a detailed review of the data, I increasingly believe this is merely the strategic layout by major funds at the top, using the low liquidity window from weekend to early week for a fierce rally, aiming to stimulate retail investors' FOMO and smoothly transfer their holdings.

I am now completely turning to a bearish stance, believing the market has entered a seller-controlled phase, with very limited room for upward movement.

First, starting with the potential future trend:

According to historical patterns, in this scenario, selling pressure is likely to gradually intensify, leading to a mild decline in price, followed by panic selling. In the short term, any rebound will be unsustainable, ultimately returning to the 0.35-0.4 range or even further down. Such trap setups are common in the crypto market; do not be fooled by temporary appearances.

Next, examining supply-side dynamics:

Near the token unlock event on December 19, although the amount is limited (about a few million tokens), combined with the prior sell-off psychology, it will promote buyers to stay on the sidelines. Participants who built positions early at low prices now find profit margins attractive; once prices slightly recover, they tend to lock in gains. During the unlocking period, these low-cost sell orders will strongly block any rebound efforts.

Technical indicators also warrant caution:

The price repeatedly tests the 0.44-0.46 resistance zone but is repeatedly rejected, showing clear fatigue and structural decline. Rises often occur during low-volume periods, which more resembles a false impression of panic buying. Once market activity picks up, the downward momentum will accelerate sharply. Currently, the top formation is nearly complete.

Moreover, on-chain observations further reinforce this judgment:

Although there is no sign of large-scale capital flowing directly into exchanges, the position distribution and liquidity signals indicate that big players have quietly reduced holdings at high levels. As the unlock date approaches, this behavior could trigger chain reactions, amplifying bearish sentiment and prompting more people to join the sell-off, accelerating the price decline.

Combining these aspects—the timing of supply release as a ticking time bomb, the solid technical resistance, the covert exit of on-chain funds, and the market expectations—bearish forces have gained the upper hand, far surpassing the support capacity of bulls.

Based on this, I strongly recommend establishing short positions around 0.45-0.46, avoiding being misled by false bullish candles. This trading approach is classic and cunning; staying alert is essential to avoid risks.

#MERL