Powell has about 6 months left before the resignation window. The current issue is not whether to replace him, but who to replace him with and when to price it in. Treasury Secretary Bessant is unwilling to take over, and the market currently assumes the best option is Haskett. Why him? First, he openly supports cryptocurrencies, which gives him a clear advantage in the current political environment; second, he explicitly supports “further rate cuts based on current economic data”; third, he highly aligns with Trump’s economic ideology. Once Haskett enters the succession channel, the Fed’s “leaning towards hawkish neutrality” pricing will be replaced by “policy-anticipated easing expectations.” I dare say, the probability of continuing rate cuts in the second half of next year is structurally certain. However, it’s important to note that rate cuts do not mean unlimited liquidity. Truly impactful liquidity injections will basically end around May next year, and subsequent rate cuts will more likely be “policy confirmation” and “sentiment backing.” In the first half of the year, liquidity expectations drive pricing; in the second half, political cycles and policy directions drive valuation. Markets always hype expectations, and only after they materialize do they push aggressively. The crypto market presents both opportunities and risks. Everyone should stay closely tuned to market dynamics and make rational decisions!