The Bank of Japan is highly likely to decide on an interest rate hike this week, with a 98% probability of a rate increase on Polymarket, which is almost certain. $ETH $BNB $SOL

Looking back at Japan's recent rate hikes, negative interest rates ended in March 2024, the rate was raised to 0.25% in July, to 0.5% in January 2025, and this time it is expected to rise to 0.75%. The previous three rate hikes had minimal impact on Bitcoin, with no significant decline in the one or two months following each increase. After all, Bitcoin's share within the vast financial system is still small, and while a rate hike in yen may lead to liquidations of yen-denominated positions, the overall impact is limited.
However, Bitcoin has often surged significantly before and after rate hikes, mainly driven by large inflows into ETFs. So, overall, Japan's rate hike has little impact on the market.
Christmas is coming soon. Over the past 11 years, the week before Christmas has seen 8 increases, and the week after Christmas 6 increases, showing an overall positive trend. But this year's movement isn't very strong, and a low-probability event could happen. An ideal scenario is to revisit 80,000, providing a good entry point. Looking forward to next year’s liquidity injection, the wave of crypto applications, RWA development, and improved payment systems, which could bring a new opportunity for cryptocurrencies!