This week's market has indeed been quite fierce. $BTC plummeted below $85,000 overnight, and $ETH couldn't hold the $3,000 level. Over 110,000 traders got liquidated, and $2.9 billion evaporated—at first glance, it looks like Black Monday, but digging deeper, the issues are far more complex than they appear on the surface.

Let's first discuss the key triggers behind this decline.

The Federal Reserve's stance has shifted. Previously, the market was betting on a continued rate-cutting cycle, but recently Powell's tone has suddenly tightened, and the global liquidity boom has come to an abrupt halt. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered also sharply lowered its target price for Bitcoin, making many realize that institutional buying power may have already hit a ceiling.

But the real pressure source actually comes from Japan. At this week's Bank of Japan meeting, the probability of raising interest rates to 0.75% soared to 98%. This may seem regional, but it actually impacts the entire globe. Over the past thirty years, global capital has been playing a game: borrowing near-zero-cost yen and converting it into dollars to flood into high-risk assets like Bitcoin, aiming to earn the spread.

Now that Japan is tightening the monetary policy, this logic is collapsing. Arbitrage capital is forced to sell off assets en masse and convert back to yen to repay debts. Bitcoin is the first to be affected, turning into a literal "cash machine."

Multiple negative factors stacking up, the future trend remains uncertain. Some are eager to buy the dip, but honestly, the current risk is significant. If you really want to act, it’s safer to wait until panic fully releases and chips are firmly in place. Market opportunities are always there; surviving is the key to laughing last.