#分享我的交易

Recently, as Bitcoin surged to around $93,000, I executed a short position and ultimately took profit at $86,800. This trade not only yielded substantial returns but also deepened my understanding of market cycles and technical resonance.

1. Opening Logic: Resonance of Multiple Signals

After Bitcoin broke through $93,000, market sentiment was clearly overheated. I chose to open a short near $93,000 based on the following judgments:

1. Technical: The weekly RSI entered overbought territory (>80), and the price touched the upper band of the channel. The four-hour chart showed a clear bearish divergence, indicating waning upward momentum.
2. Funding: Perpetual contract funding rates remained above 0.1% for several days, showing excessive leverage among longs.
3. Sentiment: Social media was flooded with "permanent bull market" comments, and the greed and fear index was in the "extreme greed" zone for a continuous week.

2. Risk Management and Position Allocation

I used a phased position-building approach:

· 30% at entry near $93,000, with a stop loss set above the previous high at $95,500
· 20% added when the price retraced to around $92,000
Total leverage kept at 50x to ensure that even if the market reversed, liquidation would be avoided.

3. Adjustments During Position Holding

The most challenging was when the price oscillated between $91,000 and $92,500 for three days. I did two things:

1. Moved the stop loss down to the cost basis to ensure no loss on the trade
2. Observed on-chain data showing continuous whale transfers into exchanges, boosting confidence in holding the position

4. Thinking Behind Take Profit Decision

Choosing to take profit at $86,800 was based on:

1. The daily EMA90 support (dynamic support level)
2. The upper boundary of a previous concentrated chip zone
3. When a bullish engulfing pattern appeared on the four-hour chart, partial profit protection was necessary

Trade Result: Approximately 370% return with a risk-reward ratio of 1:35

5. Core Reflections

1. Don’t try to catch the entire move: After taking profit at $86,800, the price continued to fall to $85,100, but I don’t regret it. Planned profits are always more valuable than unexpected losses.
2. Data is more reliable than feelings: In this trade, on-chain data (exchange net inflows, holder profit/loss ratios) gave me greater confidence than technical indicators.
3. Patience during consolidation: The three days of sideways movement tested my patience. Returning to the trading plan was more important than constantly watching the market.

Every trade is a dialogue with the market. Short positions may seem counter-trend in a bull market, but local overheat corrections are a sign of market health. The key is not the direction of long or short, but whether you have a complete logical framework and risk control system.