Market participants are sticking with their view that the Federal Reserve will deliver two rate cuts throughout 2026, even after digesting the latest employment and retail sales figures. The futures market is currently pricing in roughly 58 basis points of easing next year—a relatively modest amount that reflects cautious optimism about the economic trajectory.

What's interesting here is the stability of this expectation. Despite recent labor market and consumer spending data providing fresh signals, traders aren't significantly shifting their baseline scenario. This suggests the market has already factored in much of the current economic picture and isn't expecting dramatic surprises from these datasets.

For crypto investors, this matters because interest rate policy remains a key driver of risk appetite. Lower rates typically support assets like Bitcoin and altcoins as capital searches for yield. Two modest cuts spread across 2026 implies a gradual shift rather than an aggressive pivot—manageable for markets that have already priced in some easing.