How much longer can the gold bull market last? Institutions estimate it will break through $5,000, potentially reaching a watershed in 2026.

Will the gold market continue its upward trend? China International Capital Corporation’s latest report provides an optimistic answer. The investment bank believes that the current gold rally is far from reaching its peak, and gold prices may break through the key level of $5,000 per ounce next year or even the year after.

Historical Cycles Show Room for Further Gains

Compared to the two previous bull markets, the current phase of price increase is relatively moderate in both magnitude and duration. The bull markets of the 1970s and the early 2000s lasted longer and saw larger gains. This suggests that, from a cyclical perspective, there is still room for gold to catch up.

Macroeconomic Environment Supports Long-Term Uptrend

There are three factors supporting the continued strength of gold: First, ongoing global economic uncertainties maintain safe-haven demand; second, central banks worldwide are adjusting their foreign exchange reserve structures, with increasing gold allocations becoming a trend; third, the US dollar may enter a weakening cycle, which is bullish for dollar-denominated gold.

Risk Boundaries and Expectation Management

The premise is that the Federal Reserve cannot tighten monetary policy too quickly, and the US economy is unlikely to experience a V-shaped rebound. As long as these two conditions are maintained, the upward logic for gold can support prices until 2026.

Practical Advice: Staggered Positioning Is Better Than Chasing High

For investors, China International Capital Corporation recommends adopting a more prudent strategy: avoid blindly chasing gains, and instead gradually increase positions during pullbacks, combined with regular fixed investments, to lock in gold as a core asset allocation for the long term. This approach allows participation in the $5,000 target rise while avoiding short-term volatility risks.