From the perspective of cyclical patterns, what does a bull market mean: Will 2025 become a true bull? These tracks are worth paying attention to.

The Time Code of Bull and Bear Cycles

The cryptocurrency market follows an ancient pattern—cyclical movement. Every few years, the market swings between extreme optimism and extreme pessimism. Understanding this pattern is crucial for investors.

A bull market, simply put, is a cycle where market participants are optimistic, capital flows continuously in, and prices keep rising. Conversely, a bear market is characterized by cold sentiment, capital outflows, and prices steadily declining.

According to historical data, this cycle lasts about 4 years: the small bull market in 2013, the big bull market in 2017, the cycle peak in 2021, and the potential high point in 2025. This is no coincidence but is driven by the Bitcoin halving cycle.

Evolution Trajectory of the Current Cycle

If we follow the historical script, 2024 is at a critical transition stage:

Deep Bear Phase in 2023: The market experienced extreme panic, with retail investors and small institutions fleeing en masse. This period offers the best opportunity to absorb quality chips, but it is also the most psychologically fragile moment.

Early to Mid-2024: Institutional funds have gradually completed their布局. Bitcoin enters the halving cycle, which has historically been a price catalyst—prices tend to dip before the halving and rise rapidly after. Market makers use the halving event to attract retail investors and create buying interest.

Post-Mid-2024: Massive new capital flows in, and market enthusiasm continues to climb.

Price Targets and Risk Warnings

Based on the historical pattern of gains after halving, Bitcoin is expected to突破15万美元 in 2025, with an optimistic scenario possibly reaching 20万美元. Ethereum, as the leading ecosystem token, will also benefit accordingly.

However, caution is needed: when a large number of retail investors rush in and FOMO sentiment peaks, it often marks the end of the bull market. Institutions and whales will announce positive news at the top and then quietly exit. This is an eternal market law.

Track Selection: Where Is the Hundredfold Potential

In this cycle, the tracks worth关注 include:

Mainstream Coins: Bitcoin and Ethereum remain the core, with the best liquidity and controllable risks.

High-Potential Coins: Projects like ICP, GALA, BOME, and other mid-cap tokens often achieve multiples or even dozens of times returns during bull markets. But the risks are higher, requiring strict risk management.

The core logic for project selection is: projects with real applications, continuous funding, and ecological support tend to go further. Pure concept hype projects will be ruthlessly cleaned out in bear markets.

Rational Response to the Bull and Bear Cycles

The bull and bear cycles usually last from half a year to a year, and cryptocurrencies tend to start a new bull cycle roughly every 33 months. This means 2025 indeed has the potential to become a true big bull market, but only if investors stay rational.

The key points of investment strategy are: stay cautious during bull markets, beware of over-leverage; be patient during bear markets, wait for bottom positions; always choose competitive projects rather than chasing fads.

Time is the best witness, and risk awareness is the strongest defense. In this endless cycle of repetition, only investors who survive can ultimately achieve wealth accumulation.