The U.S. government shutdown crisis is imminent—probability of reopening before November 15th surges to 98%

The House of Representatives is set to vote on a rescue plan at 8 a.m. today (Beijing time), and the potential black swan of a "government shutdown" is about to be extinguished. This has more direct implications for our crypto trading than the Federal Reserve's rate hikes.

**Uncertainty Dissipates, Markets Will Exhale**

What are cryptocurrencies most afraid of? It's this kind of "pending" situation. Previously, the expectation of a government shutdown kept the market on edge, causing U.S. stocks and crypto assets to tremble for several days. Now, with the House's vote essentially locked in, it means this risk is finally coming to an end.

Once it's confirmed that "the government won't shut down," short-term panic will begin to recover. Bitcoin and Ethereum may see their volatility slow down, and suppressed buying interest might try to surface. But let's be clear—this is "expectation fulfillment," not "new positive news," more like a market brake being applied. Don't expect a big rally to happen immediately.

**Both Scenarios Need to Be Considered**

Will the vote get stuck? Although the probability is low (only 2%), if an unexpected event occurs, the crypto market will likely drop sharply first, then quickly recover after the vote passes.

Conversely, if everything goes smoothly? That would be a "fully digested negative factor" scenario, which might even lead to a slight pullback—because at this point, there are no "new uncertainties" to support the rally.

**Tonight Is the Market's "Mood Switch"**

The outcome of the House vote will directly determine the market's rhythm over the next one or two days. Personally, I think: in the short term, there will be a small rebound first, then enter a consolidation phase, waiting for the next substantial catalyst.

No matter how the market moves, the key is to have a clear trading strategy and find a rhythm that suits you.