#非农数据超预期

Has the bearish sentiment truly arrived after the worse-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls? The market is cautious first.

This time, the Non-Farm Payroll data significantly exceeded market expectations, with strong employment figures and steady unemployment rate. The initial reaction was almost unanimous—"Interest rate cuts will be delayed."

As a result, US stocks faced short-term pressure, risk asset sentiment cooled down, and the crypto market also trembled a bit. But upon closer inspection, this is not purely bearish. Strong non-farm data indicates that the economy remains resilient. The Federal Reserve doesn't need to rush into large-scale easing, but it also doesn't mean a return to aggressive tightening. What the market is truly panicking about is the "expectation gap," not the data itself. In the short term, risk assets will experience emotional pullbacks and rebalancing of positions; in the medium term, as long as inflation does not rise again, the trend remains intact.

Non-farm payrolls are more like an "emotional brake" rather than the end of the market trend. The focus is not on chasing gains or cutting losses, but on observing whether funds are quickly flowing back in.