#市场触底了吗？

⚠️The panic of "Black Monday" continues! The Japanese interest rate hike sword hangs overhead, should you cut losses, exit, or add positions?

The panic of "Black Monday" in the crypto market continues to ferment, with prices deeply stuck in a correctional quagmire. Retail investors are frantically cutting losses amid expectations of liquidity tightening, while the upcoming December interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan is the "sword hanging overhead." The battle between bulls and bears is intensifying, and investors face tough choices😱

📉Under the wave of panic selling, 110,000 traders are liquidated with 270 million USD

CoinGlass data shows that over 115,000 traders were liquidated in the past 24 hours across the entire network, with a total liquidation amount of 272 million USD. Long positions account for over 88% of the liquidations. Bitcoin continues to decline, once falling below the critical support of 85,000 USD, with a cumulative retracement of over 30% from its October high; Ethereum is on the brink, approaching the 2,900 USD support level. Mainstream cryptocurrencies have generally fallen more than 5%, while small-cap coins have dropped over 15% in a single day. Retail panic emotions are being released en masse, short-term holders are cutting losses and exiting, and the market panic index has fallen into the "extreme fear" zone.

🔪Japanese interest rate hike confirmed, liquidity "fresh water" will dry up

The Bank of Japan meeting on December 18-19 has become the biggest variable in the market. Currently, the probability of a rate hike has surged to over 90%, with expectations to raise the rate from 0.5% to 0.75% (the highest in thirty years). As the world's "cheap money faucet," Japan's rate hike will end the yen arbitrage trading—investors will need to sell cryptocurrencies and other risk assets to exchange for yen to repay loans. This process will drain market liquidity. Historical data shows that since 2024, every Japanese rate hike has led to more than 20% deep corrections in Bitcoin.

🐋Whales are accumulating against the trend, chips concentrated among giants

Contrasting sharply with retail panic selling, institutions and whales are taking the opportunity to buy low. On-chain data shows that whales holding 10-10,000 BTC are continuously increasing their holdings, and some digital asset treasury companies are also adding positions amid volatility. This divergence of "retail cutting losses and giants taking over" essentially reflects professional funds' precise grasp of the "misjudged opportunities" brought by macro panic.

🤔Three major options in front of you, how to decide?

- Cut losses and exit: In the short term, the Japanese rate hike may trigger a new round of liquidations, with Bitcoin possibly dropping to the 75,000-80,000 USD range. If you cannot withstand extreme volatility, cutting losses can prevent greater losses, but beware of missing a rebound.
- Hold and observe: Focus on Bitcoin's 85,000 USD and Ethereum's 2,900 USD support levels, and see if they can hold or trigger a technical rebound. But reduce leverage to avoid forced liquidations caused by liquidity tightening.
- Add positions and prepare: Suitable for long-term investors, who can use the correction to gradually build positions in mainstream coins. However, control your position size (recommend no more than 10% of total funds per addition) and wait for the post-hike emotional recovery opportunity.

With "Black Monday" stacking on the expectation of a Japanese rate hike, market volatility will only intensify. Will you choose to cut losses, exit, or add positions? Will the market bottom after the rate hike? Share your decision in the comments👇