Early this morning, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the highly anticipated November non-farm payroll report. The data showed that non-farm employment increased by 64,000 jobs in that month, surpassing the market consensus of 50,000. However, behind this "better-than-expected" report, there are clear signals that the labor market is cooling down rapidly.

Key Data Highlights: Contradictions and Revisions
Discrepancy between Employment and Unemployment: Despite the higher-than-expected job gains, the November unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, not only above the expected 4.5% but also the highest level since September 2021. This indicates more people are entering the labor force looking for work, but job growth has not kept pace.

Significant Downward Revisions to Historical Data: The report also revised down previous months' figures. The combined job gains for August and September were revised downward by 33,000, further confirming that employment growth has been weak over the past few months.

Wage Growth Significantly Slows: A key inflation indicator—the average hourly earnings—grew by 3.5% year-over-year, the slowest pace since May 2021. The easing of wage pressures provides the Federal Reserve with more policy space.

How Is the Market Betting? Dovish Expectations Emerge
After the data release, financial markets interpreted the news in a complex but somewhat dovish (expecting easing policies) manner:

The interest rate futures market has warmed to expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the first quarter of 2026. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market believes there is over an 80% chance of a rate cut before the end of April 2026.

However, contrary to market optimism, Federal Reserve officials in their latest projections for December still believe that there may only be one rate cut in 2026#非农数据超预期