Recently, the strength of shorting BTC has been so fierce, actually there are three major negative factors resonating behind the scenes, making this financial bubble seem truly unsustainable.
First, let's talk about the macroeconomic difficulties. USD liquidity has been tightening, and real yields on US Treasuries are climbing, which directly causes institutions to withdraw from high-risk assets. Look at BlackRock's BTC spot ETF (IBIT), which saw over $400 million in outflows in a single day—funds are voting with their feet, and this signal couldn't be more obvious.
Next, regarding supply and demand. The positive effects of the halving cycle have already been priced in long ago. Currently, mining companies' costs are around $40,000. To recoup their investments, they are under significant pressure to sell off inventory. Supply is increasing while demand is shrinking, making this contradiction very hard to reconcile.
Finally, the regulatory sword has been hanging overhead. Global compliance standards are becoming stricter, the SEC's classification is still uncertain, and tax regulations are tightening. Once key support levels on the technical side break, algorithmic trading will trigger another round of sell-offs.
In the short term, the bearish logic is indeed valid, and the $80,000 level below should be watched closely. However, on the other hand, long-term holders should be more decisive now, following the main players to absorb these panic-driven sell-offs.
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Recently, the strength of shorting BTC has been so fierce, actually there are three major negative factors resonating behind the scenes, making this financial bubble seem truly unsustainable.
First, let's talk about the macroeconomic difficulties. USD liquidity has been tightening, and real yields on US Treasuries are climbing, which directly causes institutions to withdraw from high-risk assets. Look at BlackRock's BTC spot ETF (IBIT), which saw over $400 million in outflows in a single day—funds are voting with their feet, and this signal couldn't be more obvious.
Next, regarding supply and demand. The positive effects of the halving cycle have already been priced in long ago. Currently, mining companies' costs are around $40,000. To recoup their investments, they are under significant pressure to sell off inventory. Supply is increasing while demand is shrinking, making this contradiction very hard to reconcile.
Finally, the regulatory sword has been hanging overhead. Global compliance standards are becoming stricter, the SEC's classification is still uncertain, and tax regulations are tightening. Once key support levels on the technical side break, algorithmic trading will trigger another round of sell-offs.
In the short term, the bearish logic is indeed valid, and the $80,000 level below should be watched closely. However, on the other hand, long-term holders should be more decisive now, following the main players to absorb these panic-driven sell-offs.