Two scenarios: The Bank of Japan announces a rate hike vs. The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates:

The Bank of Japan announces a rate hike (currently market expectations are as high as 80%-98%) Core impact: Large-scale unwinding of yen carry trades.

• Impact on Bitcoin: Bearish (short-term turbulence)
• Liquidity contraction: Many institutional players borrow cheap yen (interest nearly 0), then convert to USD to buy Bitcoin. Once the yen hikes, borrowing costs increase, and the yen will appreciate. These big players, to repay debts, must sell their Bitcoin holdings to free up funds.
• Historical backtest: Reviewing Japan's rate hikes in July 2024 and January 2025, Bitcoin experienced significant corrections of 20%-30% in the following days.
• Price target: Analysts warn that if the rate hike is accompanied by hawkish rhetoric, BTC may retrace from the current $86,000-$90,000 range back to around $70,000.

The Bank of Japan maintains interest rates unchanged (rare expectation) Core impact: Global liquidity temporarily remains unchanged.
• Impact on Bitcoin: Short-term positive / sentiment recovery
• Short squeeze: Since the market has almost fully priced in a “rate hike,” if it doesn’t happen, it would be a huge “bullish surprise” for Bitcoin, potentially triggering a strong rebound and challenging the $100,000 level again.
• Risk sentiment easing: Arbitrageurs won’t need to rush to sell coins to repay debts, and market sentiment will quickly warm up. What happens if Japan hikes by 25 basis points but the Federal Reserve (Fed) continues to cut rates? This is the so-called “monetary policy divergence.”

#ETH走势分析 The Fed’s easing (cutting rates) is adding liquidity to the market, while Japan is tightening. These two forces will compete. If the US’s easing is stronger than Japan’s tightening, Bitcoin might experience a brief dip followed by a “sweet spot.”