2025-12-18 14:40:13

#以太坊行情解读 The sharp decline of ETH in April this year, to be honest, was just a "perception illusion."

It bottomed out at 1385. From the charts and market sentiment, all the characteristics of the late bear market were present—trend collapse, shaken confidence, fractured consensus. According to previous patterns, such a decline usually signals the end of a market cycle.

But the market didn't follow the old script.

ETH stubbornly rebounded from 1385, surged all the way to 4956, not only reversing the trend but also hitting a new all-time high. Does that sound like a misjudgment? Actually, no. The real issue is— the underlying logic of the market has changed.

After institutional funds from Wall Street entered, the market's rhythm, correction amplitude, and trend sustainability no longer follow the retail investor model. Old experiences haven't completely become invalid, but in the new environment, they are especially prone to being proven wrong.

How desperate was the market's attitude towards Ethereum back then? Doubting the technology, denying the narrative, pessimistic about the prospects. But what truly reversed the trend was the reconfiguration of capital after the consensus completely collapsed.

This logic still applies today.

When you see a bunch of altcoins being dismissed now, don't rush to conclude that they are "hopeless." It could very well be the lull before a new trend emerges. The market never takes off when consensus is at its strongest; it prefers to build up big moves during times of greatest disagreement and coldest sentiment.

So, there is only one true rule—every time a trend starts, most people's chips have already been sold off.

Understand this, and reading candlestick charts is no longer just about numbers and fluctuations. You're seeing the market repeatedly defy intuition, forging its own path.

ETH0.02%

HMSTR2.1%

ZEC0.71%

ZRC1.36%

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Degen4Breakfast

· 12-21 08:07

That wave at 1385 was really a psychological test; institutions love to pump when retail investors are at their most desperate, playing with their mindset. It makes sense, but I still think most people will end up losing; how many can really wait for a reversal? As for alts, the ones being criticized the hardest right now might truly be the next opportunity; history is always so ironic. Old tricks really don’t work in new games; when institutions change the rules, we’re still using old experiences, and it’s really time to get hit. The Reverse Indicator is the best; when a coin is being criticized the hardest, that’s when you should really pay attention to it. When consensus collapses and people scatter, it’s often the bottom; this is the dark forest rule of the market. The Technical Analysis used by retail investors really is a bit of a bottleneck; when institutions come in, the rhythm completely changes.

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GamefiHarvester

· 12-18 15:10

1385 that wave was really at the extreme of despair. Thinking back now, it's just ridiculous. After institutions came in, the retail traders' strategies directly became ineffective. 2. The biggest opportunity is actually when consensus is at its most fragile. This pattern is still being repeated. 3. When knockoffs are being heavily criticized, it might be the prelude to the next breakout. It looks uncomfortable, but hold back and don't run away. 4. Every time I make a wrong judgment, I later realize it's because I was looking at the market from a too shallow perspective. The market always loves to mess with us this way. 5. The move from 1385 to 4956 isn't a misjudgment; it's because the market's rules of the game have changed. Retail traders are still using old skins. 6. Don't be fooled by consensus. The more aligned everyone is, the more dangerous it is. The biggest opportunities often hide in the areas of greatest disagreement. 7. This logic can probably be used for years, as long as institutions keep playing. Retail traders' experiences are always being proven wrong in reverse. 8. It seems I need to learn to think in reverse during the most desperate times. That might be the key to survival. 9. The chips have already been thrown out long ago, just like me. I always regret selling too early. 10. Now that many coins are being discredited, I actually feel a bit excited. The familiar script is playing again.

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MoodFollowsPrice

· 12-18 15:08

To be honest, institutional entry is just about changing the rules. The old tricks of retail investors are no longer enough to watch now.

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rugdoc.eth

· 12-18 15:06

Damn, it's that same "underlying logic has changed" again. I've heard it so many times, is this really the case this time? Retail investors being harvested and still deceiving themselves—truly incredible. I saw the 1385 wave with my own eyes, people fleeing. Now talking about consensus reconstruction sounds so absurd. Can institutional entry really change the rules? Then why not just say institutional players are the next targets to be harvested? That pile of altcoins—don't fool yourself. Most likely, they're just taking a few more steps on the road to zero. This logic can be applied to any decline, it's basically the perfect hindsight formula.

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SeeYouInFourYears

· 12-18 14:54

Exactly right, institutions are here to harvest the retail investors, and retail investors will always be the ones who get slapped in the face in the opposite direction.

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