On December 15, Bitcoin dropped from about $90,000 to $85,616, a single-day decline of over 5%. That day, there was no obvious major crash or negative event, and on-chain data showed no abnormal selling pressure. Looking only at crypto news, it's hard to find a reasonable explanation.

On the same day, gold prices only fell by $1, almost unchanged. One experienced a 5% crash, the other remained stable. If Bitcoin is truly "digital gold," it should behave more like gold in times of risk, but this time its movement resembles Nasdaq high-beta tech stocks more.
The root cause of the decline may be in Tokyo.
The Butterfly Effect in Tokyo
On December 19, the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.75%—the highest level in nearly 30 years. The market predicts a nearly 98% probability.
Why can a decision in Tokyo cause Bitcoin to fall 5% within 48 hours? The key is "yen arbitrage trading."
Japan's interest rates have been near zero for a long time, making borrowing yen extremely cheap. Global institutions borrow yen to exchange for dollars, investing in high-yield assets like US bonds, US stocks, and cryptocurrencies to earn interest rate differentials. This strategy involves trillions or even trillions of dollars.
Japan is also the largest foreign holder of US debt (1.18 trillion USD), and its capital flows influence global risk asset pricing.
An interest rate hike will increase borrowing costs and push the yen higher, forcing institutions to sell dollar assets to buy yen for repayment. This forced liquidation is not selective; the most liquid assets are hit first—Bitcoin, traded 24/7 with shallow market depth, naturally becomes a target.
History confirms: after the BOJ raised rates in July 2024, the yen surged, and Bitcoin fell 23% in a week, with the crypto market evaporating $60 billion. Past rate hikes have always led Bitcoin to retrace over 20%.
Therefore, the December 15 decline was a "front-running" move: BTC ETF saw a net outflow of $357 million in one day (the most in nearly two weeks), leveraged longs were forcibly liquidated for over $600 million, mostly chain reaction from arbitrage liquidations.
Is Bitcoin still "digital gold"?
Why does Bitcoin always get hurt first? Not only because of good liquidity but also because of re-pricing over the past two years: after ETF approval, giants like BlackRock entered, shifting holders from native crypto to institutions (pension funds, hedge funds).
These institutions manage "risk budgets," reducing all exposures proportionally when lowering risk. Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq rose to 0.80 (peaking early 2025), making its price more synchronized during stress periods.
In 2025, gold rose over 60% (the best since 1979), while Bitcoin retraced over 30% from its high. Both are hedging assets, yet their movements are opposite. Currently, Bitcoin behaves more like a high-volatility risk asset rather than a safe haven.
What will happen on December 19?
The meeting is approaching, and the market views the rate hike as a certainty. Japan's 10-year government bond yield hit an 18-year high (1.95%), with some tightening already priced in.
The impact depends on the wording: if the governor signals caution, the market may ease; if he hints at continued tightening, selling pressure will increase. Japan's inflation is above 3%, higher than the target, raising concerns beyond this rate hike.
But this time may be different: yen speculative positions have turned net long, bond yields have surged for half a year, and the Fed just cut rates, which may offset some pressure. Historically, Bitcoin often bottoms out one or two weeks after rate hikes and then rebounds. The period from late December to early January may see the most volatility, which could also be a buying opportunity.
Accepted but also influenced
Logical chain: Japan hikes rates → yen arbitrage unwinds → liquidity tightens → institutions reduce risk exposure → Bitcoin's high beta assets are sold first.
Bitcoin is not wrong; it is just at the end of the macro transmission chain. This is the new normal in the ETF era: before 2024, price movements depend on native crypto factors, with low correlation to traditional finance; now, with Wall Street involved, the pricing logic has changed, and sensitivity to macro factors has increased significantly.
If believing that "digital gold" can shelter in chaos, its performance in 2025 may be disappointing.
Perhaps it's just a phase mismatch; future institutional allocations, halving cycles, or rhythm reshaping may occur. But currently, holding Bitcoin means holding exposure to global liquidity—the decision made in the Tokyo conference room may influence your account more than on-chain indicators.
$BTC $ETH #成长值抽奖赢金条和精美周边