What are the risks of unlocking Aster? A three-layer game analysis for traders

**The big unlock is coming, but the key isn't "multiplying several times"**

This unlocking event for Aster is indeed worth serious attention. According to the latest data, the current price of ASTER has fallen to $0.69, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $13.24 million, a clear correction from the previous level around 1.1. The project has a total supply of 8 billion tokens, with 53.5% airdropped. This ratio alone indicates that unlocking risks should not be underestimated.

**Timeline: How significant is the short-term supply pressure?**

The first batch of 704 million tokens was unlocked at the September TGE (about 8.8% of the total supply), followed by a linear release over 80 months—seemingly gradual. However, at the beginning of October, another wave of approximately 320 million tokens will unlock, accounting for about 19% of circulating supply. A large influx into the market can have a significant short-term impact on the price.

**Three-layer observation method for traders**

To survive the big unlocking wave, you need to consider these three dimensions:

1. **Can trading volume support the supply shock?**

After the unlock, the market will be flooded with tokens. At this point, watch the depth of trading—high volume is good, but if the order book is concentrated only on the upper side, and everyone is waiting to sell, it becomes a typical "price spike and quick sell-off" scenario. By analyzing trading volume and order book structure, you can gauge whether the market is absorbing the supply or just cycling itself.

2. **On-chain token flow determines unlocking characteristics**

Key question: Are the unlocked addresses transferring tokens directly to exchanges, or are they gradually flowing into ecosystem projects and incentive pools? The former is purely negative (bad news), while the latter could be a positive signal—tokens locked within the ecosystem may limit immediate selling pressure. Continuous monitoring of on-chain address behavior is necessary.

3. **Can the narrative support the tokens?**

The project team’s cooperation is crucial. Are there new product launches, ecosystem collaborations, liquidity plans, or major announcements around the unlocking period? If yes, it indicates active market expectation management by the team; if not, relying solely on token absorption may be very difficult.

**Practical approach**

Don’t gamble on the unlocking day itself; instead, focus on the performance within 3 to 7 days afterward. This period is enough for the market to reflect the true flow of tokens—whether they are being continuously absorbed or just dumped and losing momentum. Currently, the price at $0.69 has already adjusted compared to previous levels. Participants should assess whether this price already reflects the unlocking risk or if it’s just the beginning.

For long-term holding of Aster, the core remains confidence in the ecosystem’s development. However, short-term trading success often depends on whether these three layers of observation are correctly interpreted.