Japan's interest rate hike triggers a chain reaction, and BTC shorting opportunities are hidden within this market movement.

The Bank of Japan’s rate hike actions have undoubtedly become a disruptor in the global financial markets, and Bitcoin is no exception. During this adjustment, shorting has become the most concerned issue for investors because opportunities do exist—it’s just a matter of reading the market’s “virtual and real” signals.

Current Price and Short-term Volatility Rhythm

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $85.51K, which is precisely the zone where bullish and bearish forces are most evenly matched. The most probable scenario is a correction to the $86K–$87K range, which may seem like a bearish move, but in reality, it’s the market makers clearing out retail positions and absorbing retail chips. Once the bulls make a comeback, the price could rapidly surge above $90K. During this process, those who are shorting will be quickly wiped out.

Institutional Accumulation Tactics: Bullish Illusion and Bearish Reality

This round of adjustment has a key feature—institutions and sovereign wealth funds have changed the game rules. Unlike previous bull markets driven by mining halts and supply reductions, now large capital is leading the rhythm. Their approach is clear: first create a false impression of a “bearish trend” to make retail believe prices will fall, then suddenly push the price up to $90K, forcing bears to surrender. After a wave of short liquidation, they will consider a pullback.

The first target is $100K, a psychological barrier and a test of resistance above. If broken, the next step is directly aiming at $106K, until most traders dare not short anymore or most shorts are wiped out.

Long-term Volatility Framework: Prepare for Wide-range Fluctuations

Bitcoin will likely oscillate within a broad range of $78K–$118K for quite some time. This framework may persist for a considerable period. However, this is not disorderly volatility but a gradual accumulation process by institutions.

Complete Reversal of Bull and Bear Cycles

The most noteworthy change is that the driving force behind this cycle has shifted. Previously, it was driven by technical supply reduction expectations; now, macro liquidity and institutional allocation needs are the main drivers. The rate hike in Japan seems bearish, but in the context of seeking safe-haven assets globally, it has actually increased demand for alternative assets like Bitcoin.

In short, the answer to how to short is not “don’t short now,” but “short within the boundaries of the range.” Shorting above $100K offers better value, while shorting at the bottom will only lead to repeated friction.