This stupid market, a hard-to-describe period of choppy garbage time.

Bitcoin has been swinging around the 85k-87k range all day, initially climbing from the morning to around 89k, then ruthlessly crashing back below 86k.
Trading volume is sluggish, leverage liquidations are sporadic but ongoing, and the Fear & Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone at 17.
ETH is even worse, struggling around 2800 USD, altcoins are mostly green, Layer2 and meme coins are bleeding heavily.

Why is it so weak? The Bank of Japan just raised interest rates by 25bp, some yen carry trades are closing, and risk assets are taking a hit.

Next week is Christmas plus options expiration (with 2.3 billion USD open interest on Deribit), everyone is reducing positions to hedge risks, no one dares to hold heavy positions betting on a rebound.

Institutions are bleeding: ETF inflows are small, but retail investors and leveraged traders are losing money.
Hardcore players like MSTR continue accumulating, but overall market confidence is shattered.

From the 126k ATH, a 32% correction, now no one dares to say “the bull market isn’t over,” more are discussing whether the “four-year cycle is breaking.”
All the classic symptoms of late-stage bull markets are here—those loudly shouting HODL are actually ready to sell; bulls are waiting for the “final surge to top out,” bears are waiting for “confirmation of a bear market before adding positions.”

The result is a market that’s like a indecisive leek, swaying in the wind.
In the short term: don’t expect a Christmas rally, if 85k doesn’t hold, look to 80k and possibly lower. #ETH走势分析