#数字资产市场洞察 The Federal Reserve CPI data and the Bank of Japan decision are about to hit simultaneously, and tonight's market could be completely reshaped by these two events.

The market is in an extremely fragile state. At 21:30 Beijing time, the US CPI will be released, which is one of the most critical risk points in recent times. Analysts expect the CPI year-over-year increase to be around 3%, but even slight deviations can trigger intense volatility—below expectations could boost rate cut expectations, with Bitcoin historically rising up to 7% within an hour; above expectations could reignite inflation pressures, potentially leading to sharp declines like a $2,500 drop in 15 minutes.
The influence from Japan should not be underestimated. The central bank's decision to raise interest rates to 0.75% is almost certain, but the real trigger will be the Governor's speech. If a hawkish signal is released indicating further rate hikes next year, hot money borrowing zero-cost yen for arbitrage will retreat in a stampede. The outflow of these arbitrage funds from the crypto market could be extremely rapid, causing intense short-term shocks.
In terms of rhythm, short-term market sentiment will be dominated by Japan's rate hike decision—before the rate hike is implemented, sentiment will remain tense; but the long-term turning point is still the US inflation data. As long as the CPI remains relatively moderate, expectations of the Federal Reserve turning to rate cuts can gradually be established, which is the fundamental driver pushing the market upward.
In such an environment, the strategy should be as follows:
First, protect positions in core assets like $BTC, $ETH, and $BNB. During extreme volatility, panic selling often results in the biggest losses. Be psychologically prepared; tonight may see rapid swings of 20%-30%, but this should not be an issue for long-term holders.
Second, use very small positions to test some high-elasticity opportunities. Emerging assets with top community consensus and traffic bases often capture unexpected upside during sentiment shifts. Certain Ethereum ecosystem tokens with specific cultural genes have performed well in similar market turning points in the past.
Finally, be ready to monitor the market closely. Although long-term investing shouldn’t require daily monitoring, at such a critical moment tonight, having real-time awareness of the two data releases is meaningful. Under extreme uncertainty, markets tend to overreact, which may create some contrarian trading opportunities.
What do you think about this wave of market movement? Will tonight’s CPI meet expectations? Under the dual catalysts, do you plan to stay on the sidelines and hedge in advance, or look for entry points amid the volatility? Share your thoughts in the comments.