Ethereum #ETHTrendWatch ETH( is currently locked in tight consolidation between major trend lines, trading near the psychological level of $3,000 after a sharp decline to $2,620 on November 21. This rebound has placed the market in a decisive zone where both buyers and sellers are testing their confidence. Immediate focus is on the support level of $2,800, as any sustained move below this level could accelerate downward pressure.

From a market structure perspective, ETH has lost the $3,000 level amid weakening futures demand and ongoing distribution by long-term holders. This selling pressure has limited recovery attempts, while decreased activity in derivatives markets reflects a decline in speculative interest. On-chain indicators further confirm this slowdown, with a trend of decreasing network activity and transaction demand, indicating weakening organic usage.
Technically, ETH continues to face strong resistance from the 50-day exponential moving average near $3,260, which has repeatedly rejected upward attempts. Each rally into this zone has been met with selling, reinforcing its role as a key barrier for trend reversal. Below, the $2,800–$2,600 region remains a critical demand zone, supported by the 200-week EMA and historical accumulation of approximately 5.8 million ETH, making it an important area for market stability.
Momentum indicators remain subdued. ETH futures are trading at roughly a 3% premium over spot prices, significantly below the 5% or higher typically associated with bullish conditions. This suggests weak borrowing demand and cautious trader positioning. Meanwhile, the long-term ETH supply has decreased by about 847,000 coins over the past month, the largest reduction since early 2021, adding further downward pressure from sellers.
On-chain metrics confirm this cautious outlook. Ethereum network fees have decreased by approximately 45% month-over-month, while active addresses have declined by 14% over the past week. Transaction volume has also fallen, indicating reduced network engagement and limited short-term catalysts.
From a technical analysis standpoint, ETH confirmed the formation of a bearish flag after breaking below $3,200. Consolidation below the $3,173–$3,250 zone has turned this area into resistance. A decisive break below $2,800 will increase the likelihood of a deeper correction, with initial targets downward around $2,716–$2,623, and possibly down to $2,376, representing about an 18% decline from current levels.
For any significant recovery, ETH needs to regain the $3,000 level and break above the 50-day EMA with strong volume support. Without this confirmation of upward attempts, rallies are likely to remain corrective rather than trend-reversing.
Overall, ETH is in a critical consolidation phase characterized by weak momentum and increased downward pressure. Short-term participants should closely monitor the $2,800 support level, as its failure could trigger accelerated declines. Conversely, sustained holding above $3,000 and key moving averages is necessary to restore bullish confidence. In this environment, patience, volume confirmation, and respect for key technical levels will be essential for navigating ETH’s next move.