Where Do the World's Rarest Earth Elements Really Come From? A Supply Chain Reality Check

The global demand for rare earth metals is surging as clean energy and advanced technology reshape economies worldwide. Yet the supply chain remains heavily concentrated, creating vulnerabilities that geopolitical tensions and trade wars are only making worse. Let’s examine which nations actually control Earth’s rare earth reserves — and what that means for the future.

The 130 Million Metric Ton Question

Global rare earths reserves total 130 million metric tons. But this figure masks a critical imbalance: eight countries hold the lion’s share, controlling over 95 million MT of known deposits. The distribution is deeply uneven, which explains why supply chain security dominates boardroom conversations from Washington to Brussels.

Asia’s Stranglehold: From Beijing to Hanoi

China’s 44 Million Metric Ton Fortress

China isn’t just the largest producer — it’s a reserve superpower. At 44 million MT of rare earth oxide equivalent, China controls roughly one-third of global reserves while producing 270,000 MT annually in 2024.

This dominance didn’t happen by accident. After warning in 2012 that reserves were depleting, Beijing shifted strategy. The government built commercial and national stockpiles, then systematically choked off illegal mining and exports. When China cut shipments in 2010, rare earths prices exploded, forcing the West to scramble for alternative sources. Today, China even imports heavy rare earths from Myanmar — where environmental devastation has become catastrophic as mining operations shift to less regulated jurisdictions.

The geopolitical dimensions run deep. Beijing’s 2023 ban on exporting rare earth magnet technology directly targeted U.S. EV and defense ambitions. The rare earths arms race is real, and it centers on who dominates the 21st-century tech economy.

India’s Sleeping Giant: 6.9 Million MT

India sits third globally with 6.9 million MT in reserves, yet produced only 2,900 MT in 2024. The untapped potential is enormous. The nation controls nearly 35% of the world’s beach and sand mineral deposits — prime sources for rare earths extraction.

Government moves suggest this may change. In late 2023, New Delhi began codifying rare earths R&D policies. October 2024 brought fresh momentum when Trafalgar announced plans for India’s first integrated rare earth metals, alloys, and magnets facility. If executed, this could reshape competitive dynamics in Asia.

Vietnam’s Troubled Path: 3.5 Million MT

Vietnam’s story reveals supply chain fragility. Reserves were revised sharply downward from 22 million MT to 3.5 million MT in 2024, based on updated company and government surveys. Production languished at just 300 MT despite ambitious 2030 targets of 2.02 million MT.

The roadblock? In October 2023, six rare earths executives — including Vietnam Rare Earth chairman Luu Anh Tuan — were arrested on fraud charges involving value-added-tax receipts in rare earths trading. One executive’s arrest can derail an entire nation’s resource strategy.

The Western Reserve Gap

Brazil’s 21 Million MT Mystery

Brazil holds the second-largest reserves globally at 21 million MT, yet produced just 20 MT in 2024. This gap between reserves and output is the story of the next decade.

Serra Verde changed the equation. Its Pela Ema project, one of the world’s largest ionic clay deposits, began Phase 1 commercial production in early 2024. By 2026, the company targets 5,000 MT annually of rare-earth oxide — and critically, all four magnet rare earths: neodymium, praseodymium, terbium, and dysprosium. Pela Ema claims exclusivity as the only non-Chinese operation producing all four simultaneously. This single project could rebalance global supply.

Australia’s Lynas Advantage: 5.7 Million MT

Australia, with 5.7 million MT in reserves, punches above its weight through technology leadership. Lynas Rare Earths operates Mount Weld in Western Australia plus downstream processing in Malaysia, positioning itself as the world’s largest non-Chinese supplier. A Mount Weld expansion completes in 2025. Lynas’ new Kalgoorlie facility began producing mixed rare earth carbonate in mid-2024.

Hastings Technology Metals’ Yangibana mine is another game-changer. Recently signing an offtake agreement with Baotou Sky Rock, Yangibana expects to deliver 37,000 MT of rare earths concentrate annually by Q4 2026. Australian projects are reshaping non-Chinese supply architectures.

The U.S. Paradox: 1.9 Million MT, But Second in Production

The United States ranks seventh in global reserves at 1.9 million MT yet produced 45,000 MT in 2024 — second only to China. This paradox reflects decades of outsourcing. Only California’s Mountain Pass mine (operated by MP Materials) currently extracts rare earths domestically.

The Biden Administration signaled priorities in April 2024, allocating $17.5 million to develop rare earths from secondary coal and coal by-products. MP Materials is simultaneously building downstream Stage III capabilities at its Fort Worth facility to convert Mountain Pass ore into rare earth magnets and precursor products. Washington is betting on technology and innovation to overcome reserve constraints.

Eastern Europe’s Hidden Tensions

Russia’s Uncertain Future: 3.8 Million MT

Russia held 3.8 million MT in reserves for 2024, down sharply from 10 million MT the prior year based on updated assessments. Production remained flat at 2,500 MT. Moscow invested heavily post-2020 in rare earths capability to challenge China’s dominance — yet Ukraine minerals and related supply chain investments have been deprioritized as military obligations consume resources.

The Ukraine conflict exposed rare earths vulnerability. Initial fears of Western supply disruptions proved overblown, but the trajectory is clear: geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe diverts capital and attention from developing alternative rare earths sources. Russia’s domestic sector development plans have been shelved indefinitely.

Greenland’s Geopolitical Prize: 1.5 Million MT

Greenland controls 1.5 million MT in reserves across two major projects: Tanbreez and Kvanefjeld. Neither is yet in production, but both are flashpoints.

Critical Metals completed Stage 1 acquisition of Tanbreez in July 2024 and commenced drilling in September. Meanwhile, Energy Transition Minerals faced repeated rejections for Kvanefjeld due to uranium extraction concerns. Even after submitting an amended plan excluding uranium, Greenland’s government rejected it in September 2023. As of October 2024, litigation remains unresolved.

The geopolitical dimension is unmissable. With President Trump back in office, Greenland’s rare earths reserves are firmly “on the radar.” Yet Greenland’s Prime Minister and Denmark’s King have made clear: the island is not for sale.

The Separation Problem: Why Reserves Don’t Equal Security

Knowing where rare earths exist is half the battle. The other half is extraction and separation — a process so chemically complex it remains a permanent bottleneck.

Rare earths share similar chemical properties, making separation extraordinarily difficult and expensive. Solvent extraction — the most common method — demands hundreds to thousands of cycles to achieve purity. It’s why mining rare earths is capital-intensive and technically demanding even before environmental concerns enter the equation.

Heavy rare earths are scarcer than light rare earths in economic deposits, driving up costs further. This explains why even countries with massive reserves produce relatively little.

What This Means for Supply Chain Security

In 2024, global rare earths production reached 390,000 MT, up from 376,000 MT in 2023. A decade ago, output was just above 100,000 MT. Production is accelerating, but so is demand from electric vehicles, wind turbines, electronics, and defense systems.

The eight countries with reserves exceeding 1 million MT will shape the next decade of energy transition and technological competition. China’s stranglehold remains formidable, but Brazil’s imminent production surge, Australia’s operational excellence, and America’s downstream innovation are creating options Western economies desperately need.

Yet vulnerability persists. Supply chain concentration, geopolitical fragmentation (especially Ukraine minerals-related disruptions affecting Eastern European calculus), environmental damage in unregulated mining regions, and the technical complexity of rare earths separation mean prices remain vulnerable to shock.

The race for supply security has only just begun.