Wheat Exports Surge While Chicago Wheat Futures Display Diverging Trends

Wheat markets are showing a tale of two trends this Tuesday. The dynamics became clearer with Monday’s Export Inspections report revealing wheat shipments hitting 474,530 MT (17.44 mbu) for the week ending November 20—a massive 92.48% jump from the previous week and 29.68% higher than the same period last year. This surge underscores strong global demand even as futures prices remain under pressure.

Export Momentum Breaking Records

The Philippines led purchases with 88,074 MT, while Bangladesh and Mexico rounded out the top buyers with 56,890 MT and 55,778 MT respectively. The marketing year cumulative now stands at 12.84 MMT (471.7 mbu), outpacing last year’s pace by 19.65%. South Korean importers also entered the picture, tendering for 90,000 MT from North American supplies.

Chicago Wheat Futures Under Selling Pressure

Chicago SRW futures struggled on Monday, declining 4-5 cents, with open interest contracting by 1,896 contracts. The December CBOT wheat contract closed at $5.22¼, down 4¾ cents, while the March contract settled at $5.34¾, off 5 cents. KC HRW futures were similarly subdued, falling 3-4 cents on the session.

In contrast, Minneapolis spring wheat futures displayed relative strength, posting flat-to-positive moves, ending up as much as 3 cents. December MGEX wheat gained 2¾ cents to $5.68¾, though March MGEX wheat weakened slightly.

Crop Development Tracking Near Average

Winter wheat planting reached 97% completion as of Sunday, matching the historical average, with emergence at 87%—running 2 points below the typical pace. The most recent Crop Progress report showed 48% of the US wheat crop rated as good/excellent, representing a 3-point improvement compared to last week but trailing last year’s level by 7 points.

The delayed Export Sales data from the week of October 9 is projected to reflect 350,000 to 650,000 MT of wheat sales, suggesting continued commercial interest in new crop supplies as global buyers remain active.