Global Copper Supply: Understanding Output Distribution Across Major Mining Nations in 2024

The copper market faced a defining year in 2024, with supply tightening concerns and surging demand from the energy transition creating new dynamics in price discovery. Last May, copper crossed the historic $5 per pound threshold for the first time, reflecting the intense interplay between limited mining capacity and rising consumption needs. According to the latest US Geological Survey, worldwide copper output reached 23 million metric tons that year, setting the stage for a detailed look at which countries are driving the global supply chain.

The critical challenge facing the industry is straightforward: aging mines in major producing regions lack replacement capacity, while demand from electrification continues climbing. China, traditionally the world’s largest copper consumer, has been unable to absorb material quantities as it manages economic headwinds. Analysts project the copper market will swing into supply deficits in coming years—a dynamic that should support both metal prices and mining company profitability. For anyone tracking copper investments, understanding the geographic concentration of production becomes essential.

Copper Supply Concentration: Where Global Production Concentrates

The global copper production landscape reveals significant geographic clustering. The top five countries alone account for over 13 million metric tons annually, demonstrating how concentrated supply truly is. This concentration creates both opportunity and risk for the industry.

Chile dominates the market, capturing approximately 23 percent of global output with 5.3 million metric tons in 2024. The country hosts operations from state-owned Codelco, Anglo American, Glencore, and Antofagasta. Most notably, BHP’s Escondida mine—the world’s largest copper operation—delivered 1.13 million metric tons from BHP’s 57.5 percent stake, while Rio Tinto holds 30 percent. Remarkably, Chilean output is positioned to rebound sharply to 6 million metric tons in 2025 as new mining projects ramp production.

The Democratic Republic of Congo has emerged as a surprise growth engine, reaching 3.3 million metric tons (11 percent of global supply) in 2024, up from 2.93 million the prior year. Ivanhoe Mines’ Kamoa-Kakula project, jointly developed with Zijin Mining Group, contributed 437,061 metric tons in its first full production year. The joint venture forecasts additional growth to 520,000-580,000 metric tons in 2025.

Second-Tier Producers Maintain Steady Contribution

Peru generated 2.6 million metric tons, representing a 160,000 MT decline from 2023, primarily due to weakness at Freeport McMoRan’s Cerro Verde operation. The mine saw a 3.7 percent output decrease, attributed to lower leach ore stockpiles and maintenance-related processing reductions. Anglo American’s Quellaveco and Southern Copper’s Tia Maria represent additional significant operations there.

China’s direct mine production reached 1.8 million metric tons, continuing a multi-year erosion from the 1.91 million MT peak in 2021. However, this masks China’s true dominance: its refined copper output totaled 12 million metric tons—representing 44 percent of global refining capacity and six times Chile’s refinery throughput. China also holds the world’s largest copper reserves at 190 million metric tons. Zijin Mining Group’s consolidated control of Tibet’s Qulong mine, now China’s largest, is generating an estimated 366 million pounds annually.

Emerging Suppliers Reshape Regional Dynamics

Indonesia vaulted into fifth place with 1.1 million metric tons, surpassing both the United States and Russia. This marks dramatic acceleration from 907,000 MT in 2023 and 731,000 MT in 2021. Freeport McMoRan’s Grasberg complex remains the nation’s flagship operation, while PT Amman Mineral’s Batu Hijau mine is positioned for a production jump to 1.84 billion pounds in 2024 as Phase 7 ore processing begins. Amman Minerals’ newly commissioned smelting facility will annually process 900,000 metric tons of concentrate into 222,000 metric tons of cathodes.

The United States held steady at 1.1 million metric tons, though this represents a steeper decline from the 1.23 million MT recorded in 2022. Arizona supplies 70 percent of domestic production across 17 mines, with Freeport McMoRan’s Morenci operation (a Sumitomo joint venture) leading at 700 million pounds annually. Safford and Sierrita mines contributed an additional 249 million and 165 million pounds respectively.

Smaller Players and Future Trajectories

Russia generated 930,000 metric tons, a notable jump from 890,000 MT as the Udokan mine in Siberia ramped Phase 1 production to 135,000 metric tons despite fire incidents. Phase 2 deployment in 2028 is projected to expand Siberian capacity to 450,000 metric tons annually.

Australia delivered 800,000 metric tons, marking a 10-year high for BHP’s Olympic Dam operation at 216,000 metric tons. The Mount Isa complex, managed by Glencore’s subsidiary, will cease operations in the second half of 2025. Australia remains tied with Peru for the second-highest reserves globally at 100 million metric tons.

Kazakhstan entered the top 10 at 740,000 metric tons, surpassing Mexico and Zambia through consistent gains from the 510,000 MT baseline in 2021. The nation’s ambitious National Development Plan targets 40 percent mineral production growth by 2029 through exploration incentives and tax structures. KAZ Minerals’ Aktogay mine contributed 228,800 metric tons, down slightly from 252,400 MT in 2023.

Mexico concluded the top 10 with 700,000 metric tons, essentially flat year-over-year. Grupo Mexico’s Buenavista del Cobre mine in Sonora remains the country’s largest operation, while La Caridad mine adds material secondary capacity.

The Reserves Picture and Forward Outlook

Beyond current production, reserve distribution matters enormously for long-term supply security. China’s 190 million metric ton reserve base towers above competitors, while Australia and Peru each hold 100 million metric tons. This reserve disparity underscores why supply projections increasingly favor certain producers as traditional mines age.

The convergence of tight supply, aging infrastructure, and surging electrification demand creates a fundamentally different copper market than existed just three years ago. For investors monitoring copper supply dynamics and production by country, tracking both current output and reserve-to-production ratios provides the clearest visibility into which regions will drive the next decade of price action and corporate profitability.