If Bitcoin Hits Six Figures, Could MicroStrategy's Stock See Soaring Gains?

The Policy Storm That Raised Questions

MicroStrategy recently found itself under scrutiny when Michael Saylor reversed the company’s stance on share issuance tied to its net asset value multiple. Previously committed to issuing shares only when trading above a 2.5x mNAV threshold, the firm’s shift has left investors questioning the direction. What’s particularly striking is how drastically the mNAV ratio has deteriorated—plummeting from 3.68x at year-end 2024 down to just 1.6x currently. This dramatic collapse reflects growing skepticism about the company’s Bitcoin-heavy strategy among market participants.

Still, the narrative isn’t entirely bleak. The firm generated $10 billion in net income during Q2, and CFO Andrew Phang reassured stakeholders that equity dilution won’t proceed below the critical 2.5 multiplier. Treasurer Shirish Jajodia has been vocal on podcast platforms, arguing that critics will eventually grasp the long-term logic behind these strategic decisions.

When Bitcoin Soars: The Math Behind the Forecast

Market observers are watching a critical juncture. John Deaton, a prominent attorney with deep ties to the XRP community, has projected Bitcoin climbing into the $180,000–$250,000 range as the current cycle matures. Given Bitcoin’s current spot price hovering near $88.24K, such a move would represent substantial upside. Deaton contends that such a Bitcoin rally wouldn’t leave MicroStrategy’s stock untouched. He forecasts the shares, now trading around $358, could spot a breakout above $500 if Bitcoin reaches the upper end of his range.

However, Deaton also flagged a material risk. Historical patterns suggest Bitcoin could experience a sharp correction, potentially shedding 30–40% from cycle peaks. Should that scenario unfold, speculation about forced liquidations of MicroStrategy’s vast Bitcoin reserves could resurface, pressuring the stock downward.

The Long Game: Could It Become a Wall Street Powerhouse?

Beyond the near-term volatility, some analysts envision a transformative trajectory. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee has suggested that if Bitcoin eventually reaches $1 million—a bold but not impossible scenario over extended timeframes—MicroStrategy could rival the world’s largest publicly traded companies in market capitalization. The driver wouldn’t be traditional earnings power, but rather the sheer accumulated value of its Bitcoin holdings. Lee’s comparison was striking: “Exxon was oil. MicroStrategy is Bitcoin.”

This positioning represents a fundamental bet on Bitcoin’s continued adoption and appreciation. Whether the market rewards this concentration strategy depends heavily on whether Bitcoin can sustain its rally through the coming year and beyond.