XRP Spot ETF Could Attract $5B in Early Inflows, Potentially Outperforming Ethereum Counterparts

The cryptocurrency community is buzzing with anticipation as Canary Capital’s leadership suggests XRP spot ETFs may draw substantial institutional capital in their opening month. According to recent statements, inflows could reach approximately $5 billion, a figure that would represent stronger adoption than Ethereum’s ETF performance to date.

Market Performance: Why Ethereum’s ETF Underwhelmed

Bitcoin’s entrance into the regulated ETF space set a powerful precedent. The flagship asset captured $1.5 billion in net inflows during January 2024, scaling to $3.30 billion by February 12. Ethereum’s trajectory, however, painted a contrasting picture. The asset experienced significant redemptions, with $480 million in outflows recorded during July 2024, followed by an additional $5.60 million drawdown the subsequent month. Much of this capital exodus traced back to liquidations from Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust position.

This disparity highlights a critical gap in institutional confidence between different digital assets. While Bitcoin benefited from proven store-of-value narratives, Ethereum struggled to resonate with traditional finance players who viewed its application layer through a more speculative lens.

XRP’s Structural Advantages in the Wall Street Arena

Analysts point to XRP’s unique positioning as a catalyst for accelerated ETF adoption. Within Wall Street’s hierarchy of recognized cryptocurrencies, XRP ranks second only to Bitcoin. This prominence, combined with decades-long advocacy from its dedicated community base, positions the asset for rapid mainstream institutional adoption upon ETF launch.

More fundamentally, XRP’s use case—enabling borderless payments and settlement infrastructure—aligns naturally with financial institutions’ operational needs. Unlike Ethereum, which centers on programmable smart contracts and decentralized application ecosystems, XRP offers direct utility for regulated banking workflows. This distinction makes it substantially easier for compliance-focused institutional investors to integrate into their portfolios.

Currently trading at $1.93 with a market capitalization approaching $116.6 billion, XRP demonstrates the fundamental market interest that could translate into robust ETF inflows.

Rising Probability of 2025 Approvals

Market analysis suggests increasing confidence in imminent regulatory approval. Probability estimates for XRP ETF authorization in 2025 have shifted from 80% to 85%, signaling growing institutional consensus. Industry observers expect that other major assets—including Solana, Litecoin, and HBAR—may also secure ETF approvals within the same timeframe.

XRP’s existing futures products provide regulatory precedent, strengthening the pathway toward spot ETF acceptance. This infrastructure advantage positions the token favorably against other contenders pursuing similar approvals.

The convergence of market demand, regulatory readiness, and structural advantages suggests XRP’s ETF launch could catalyze a material capital reallocation from traditional crypto holdings into regulated investment vehicles, potentially establishing a new benchmark for institutional adoption velocity.