1. Market Overview

Based on the latest candlestick data, BTC's current price is $88,303.5, reflecting the closing prices over the past 1 hour and daily timeframe. The daily data for the past 14 days shows that BTC's price has been oscillating at high levels, with multiple fluctuations within the range of approximately $88,000 to $90,400, reaching a high of $89,400 and a low of $87,795.8. In the last two trading days, BTC's price has gradually declined from a high of $88,573.1, with trading volume decreasing. The latest daily volume is 115.968 BTC, indicating short-term contraction amid the tug-of-war between bulls and bears. Over the past 48 hours, most hourly candlesticks have hovered between $88,100 and $88,400, with hourly trading volumes mostly between 80-150 BTC, showing a clear narrowing of short-term volatility. Combined with recent news, market sentiment has become cautious overall, with some voices beginning to reflect bearish expectations. Headlines such as "Demand Boom Is Fading—CryptoQuant Says Bear Market Has Begun" explicitly mention that BTC's short-term volatility is intense and repeatedly testing key levels. From analyst perspectives to media commentary, there is a growing decline in market confidence and an increasing divergence between bullish and bearish opinions, especially after BTC failed to hold above $90,000, leading some investors to adopt a wait-and-see or even pessimistic attitude.

2. Technical Analysis
Candlestick data clearly indicates that BTC's current core trading range is between $87,000 and $89,400. The highest point in 14 days was $94,589 (14 days ago), and the lowest was $83,822.8, with the current price positioned slightly below the middle of this range. The current price of $88,303.5 has some room below the recent high, while support levels are clearly located between $87,318 and $85,188, a zone that has repeatedly served as a rebound point on the daily chart. Short-term hourly candlesticks show that BTC is oscillating within the $88,100-$88,400 range, forming a weak consolidation with no clear upward momentum. Considering the volume over the past 48 hours, there is no evidence of large-scale buying or panic selling; the volume and weak sideways movement suggest that bears still hold a slight advantage in the short term but without a strong trend. Resistance levels are identified at $89,300 on both hourly and daily charts; a volume breakout above this could test the $89,800-$90,000 zone. Major resistance is concentrated around $94,000, where the daily chart has repeatedly seen pullbacks. Support levels are mainly at $87,318 and $85,188, with an extreme support at $80,888 as a key defensive line. The overall trend remains weak, with prices repeatedly bouncing within support zones and diminishing rebound heights.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Recent news generally focuses on the judgment that BTC is entering a consolidation phase or the early stages of a bear market, with significant attention paid to changes in supply and demand structure. For example, headlines like "Demand Boom Is Fading" and "Analysts Predict New Bear Market" indicate a cautious market sentiment. Content repeatedly mentions ETF capital outflows, demand contraction, and price declines, aligning with recent candlestick data showing downward movement. On the policy front, statistics show no new regulatory or policy changes in the past month, with no active interventions supporting the market. Coupled with news data, there is little concern about new regulatory measures, but also a lack of positive catalysts. Deep price declines are often associated with negative news such as ETF outflows and demand drops. While some opinions emphasize BTC's long-term value as a financial asset, short-term sentiment remains predominantly bearish.

4. Analyst Opinions
Analyst views mainly focus on short-term oscillations. For example, "Three Horse Brother Crypto Analysis" states: "BTC has been oscillating in this range after rising from 80,000 to 94,000, so our trading approach this week has been to trade around these two levels," and suggests that range-bound trading is preferable, emphasizing that "a unidirectional trend is a real test for professionals." This aligns with the actual candlestick movements, as BTC has been repeatedly oscillating within the high range for several days. Another analyst provides support and resistance levels: "The nearest support is around 87,318, and a good support that has held each time it dips is around 85,188." Currently, the market is indeed oscillating within these levels, confirming the analyst's judgment. Some analysts signal bullish signals but emphasize the need to observe support levels, such as "Hammer Contract Trading," which mentions: "Stop-loss near 87,500, with flexible entries at 88,200-89,000-89,800, no need to chase the exact point." This reflects a market strategy of high-probability buy and sell points, with limited confidence in a unidirectional trend.

5. Future Trend Prediction and Trading Recommendations
Based on the current candlestick structure, BTC is at $88,303.5, with short-term weak sideways movement. If the price effectively breaks below $87,318, it could test support levels at $85,188 and even $80,888. On the upside, attention should be paid to the short-term resistance at $89,300; a volume breakout above this could target $89,800 and even $90,000. If the daily chart fails to stabilize above $90,000, a range-bound approach is recommended, avoiding chasing rallies. For aggressive traders, a light long position can be taken in the $87,300-$85,200 zone with strict stop-losses, moving stops below $85,000. If the price breaks above $89,300 with volume, small positions can be added to target $90,000-$91,000. Conversely, if weakness persists, patience is advised until signs of stabilization around $80,888 appear before considering new positions.

6. Risk Warning
Market volatility has decreased significantly in the short term, but during the rapid decline from recent highs, trading volume shrank, indicating fragile short-term sentiment. A break below $87,300 could quickly open downside space, and stop-losses must be executed. Currently, there is no clear policy or capital-driven mainline support, and sentiment remains somewhat pessimistic. If a new wave of global financial market turbulence occurs, it will intensify BTC's existing pressure. High-leverage participants should avoid chasing rallies or panic selling, strictly controlling risk exposure. Overall, it is recommended to maintain low positions and follow the trend, with close attention to support levels and stop-loss protections. In summary, BTC's recent movements show no clear reversal signals; short-term trading should focus on weak oscillations and cautious observation, with flexible strategies based on candlestick analysis to prevent significant losses from unidirectional moves.