[ 1 ] The uncomfortable axiom of prediction markets is this

> the largest profits do not come from superior models, faster reactions, or better intuition. they come from information asymmetry.

Polymarket, by design, aggregates belief - but occasionally it reveals knowledge.

When you see six- or seven-figure outcomes extracted with near-zero volatility, you are not observing skillful speculation.

You are observing players who already knew how the event would resolve and simply waited for the market to misprice reality.

The clearest proof is a single trade that netted $474,000 on a seemingly absurd market about Pope Leo XIV’s Google search dominance.

Markets do not leak alpha; people do.