1. Market Overview According to the provided candlestick data, the current market price of ETH is 3029.88 (based on the recent daily candlestick close value), reflecting the recent price consolidation after a pullback from its high. Over the past 14 days, ETH has touched high points multiple times, with the highest point at a high of 3447.44 and the lowest point dropping to 2772.23, indicating significant market volatility. Trading volume has shown some contraction in the last two days, with the latest daily trading volume at 12559.9, significantly lower than the peak volume during this high volatility phase (such as 520510). This indicates a decline in market participation enthusiasm as prices drop and consolidate. Overall sentiment-wise, combined with the latest analyst views and news information, the ETH market is under pressure recently, with a short-term stalemate between bulls and bears, creating a cautious atmosphere. 2. Technical Analysis 1. Trend Judgment: The 14-day candlestick chart shows that ETH had surged from above 3000 to challenge 3447.44, but then quickly retreated to the 2800-3000 range, finding support around 2800. Recently, a mild rebound to current price levels has been observed, but the rebound height is limited, and trading volume continues to contract, indicating weakening rebound momentum. 2. Support and Resistance: - Main Support Level: Based on the daily candlestick low values in the past 14 days, the primary important support is in the recent low range of 2772.23-2808.63; the secondary support is at the 2944 and 2970 levels (previous segment lows and short-term consolidation areas). - Main Resistance Level: Current resistance focuses on the 3060-3085 range (multiple daily candlestick highs and unbroken pressure points), with higher points at 3237 and 3447.44. If a new surge occurs, these will become key pressure points. 3. Short-Term Analysis: The 48-hour hourly candlestick shows low-level consolidation, with prices repeatedly testing between 2970-3005, without significant volume breakthroughs, indicating a wait-and-see approach from short-term funds. 4. Trading Volume: Whether in daily or hourly candlestick periods, current trading volumes are far below the high volatility phase, indicating a lack of clear leading forces. 3. News and Policy Interpretation - The Ethereum "Fusaka" upgrade and the on-chain activity combined with the "disappearance of Gas fee barriers" have driven positive market expectations, but actual prices have not shown a significant positive response, instead following ETF capital outflows under pressure, reflecting the dominance of short-term technical and capital sentiment. - Reports of "over $6 billion in Ethereum ETF capital outflows" directly correspond to multiple price declines and high point pullbacks for ETH in the past week, indicating that capital outflows exert pressure on coin prices, suppressing short-term rebound momentum. - There have been no new supportive policies or regulatory movements (related policy statistics show zero in the past month), indicating that policy factors have minimal impact on the current market situation, with fundamental market lines still driven mainly by capital and sentiment fluctuations. 4. Analyst Opinion Integration - Selected Viewpoint: "I still have my short order hanging around 3160, going with the flow." (Analyst's original words) show that mainstream community KOLs generally remain cautious, even leaning towards a bearish outlook. This position is currently above the current price level, and the short-term has not been realized, with prices failing to sustain a rebound to that order point, reflecting market weakness. - Another viewpoint: "Bulls buy at 3100-3165, TP1:3058, TP2:3013, TP3:2975, 3190 suggest leverage ×10X-60X," suggesting bulls buy at 3100-3165. However, ETH has not been able to consistently hold above 3100, and the rebound has not seen a continuation after breaking 3058 (TP1), with the actual trend slightly weaker than bullish expectations. - It can be seen that some analysts are still trying short-term bullish operations, but the actual market shows a blocked rebound and a situation dominated by bears, with the market cautious and not lacking defensive strategies. 5. Future Trend Predictions and Operational Suggestions Based on the candlestick trends and analyst views, the short-term market is in a narrow consolidation, lacking capital drive and momentum. If ETH cannot return above the resistance level of 3060-3085, it is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate around the 2970-3030 range, with limited rebound heights, and there is always the possibility of a pullback to the support range of 2800-2940. If it breaks below the 2970-2940 area with volume, it will test the lower key support at 2800-2770. Operational Suggestions: - Short-term cautious observation is advised, waiting for an effective breakthrough above 3060 before considering following the trend; otherwise, it is not advisable to chase highs; - If the price approaches below 2970 and shows volume support, consider gradually laying out long positions, but stop-loss must be set below 2940 to prevent further declines; - Leveraged operations carry extremely high risks, and strict control of positions and leverage multiples is recommended, do not blindly increase positions. 6. Risk Warning According to daily and hourly candlestick data, ETH has recently shown violent fluctuations, with the maximum high-low range exceeding 670 points, and with significant changes in trading volume, it is susceptible to quick impacts from short-term funds. Currently, there is a lack of policy buffers and new positive signals, and if negative capital outflows related to ETFs continue, the downside risk of prices will be exacerbated. Weak rebounds and low-volume consolidation also mean that once a breakdown occurs, there will be significant pullback space. Investors need to closely monitor the defense situation at the key support levels of 2970, 2940, and 2800, strictly enforce stop-loss discipline to avoid losses from unilateral market movements. Overall, the ETH market is biased towards weakness in the short term, and it is recommended that investors operate cautiously with low positions, closely track trading volumes and major news dynamics, and grasp key technical points, avoiding emotional decision-making.