$ETH is looking good at the 3500 level tonight.

The constraints of the U.S. political ecology on global finance are becoming increasingly evident. The current focus is on the selection of the new chairman of the Federal Reserve—this decision will directly impact the liquidity environment in the coming years, which in turn will affect the entire risk asset sector.

The independence of the Federal Reserve is undergoing a test. Washington is pushing for interest rate cuts, while core inflation remains relatively high. In this contradictory situation, policy direction often outweighs data-driven decision-making logic. The two main candidates represent vastly different policy paths.

**Dovish vs Hawkish Confrontation**

Candidate A tends to favor a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle. This approach will continue to inject liquidity into the market, forming a clear bullish signal for high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. Investors holding ETH and other risk assets will see valuation support in this environment.

Candidate B's approach is to implement balance sheet reduction (QT) while lowering interest rates. It sounds contradictory, but in reality, it aims to "correct" the ultra-loose policies of the past decade. This could lead to a tug-of-war between market liquidity contraction and the benefits of interest rate cuts, and crypto assets may face a situation of increased short-term volatility.

**Uncertainty in the Market**

The changing policy environment has altered the traditional framework of technical and fundamental analysis. Economic data may no longer be the dominant force; instead, the policy games in Washington have become direct market drivers. This means that volatility will increase, but it will also create opportunities.

Regardless of who ultimately takes the lead, the credibility of the Federal Reserve has already been impacted. This will affect the expected stability of the market for a considerable period, and investors need to switch to a more flexible asset allocation approach. If the liquidity environment is optimistic, crypto asset allocation can be more aggressive; if a tightening cycle is expected, then more cautious position management is required.

What is your view on the market impact of these two policy directions? Considering the current macro background, what adjustments will you make to your cryptocurrency asset strategy?