2025-12-22 20:22:29

Coffee is ready, and the screen is clean. Tonight, there will be two major events impacting the market—US November CPI inflation data and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. Traders who have gone through several rounds of bull and bear markets understand this principle: when faced with such market conditions, it's better to focus on surviving rather than making profits. Yesterday's rise and fall were merely institutions testing the market data; the real market impact will be unleashed tonight at 21:30 (CPI release) and tomorrow morning (Bank of Japan decision). The following points may help you avoid falling into the liquidation traps that most retail investors face.

**US CPI: The Deciding Factor of Fund Flows**

The U.S. CPI, announced at 21:30 tonight, directly affects the Federal Reserve's monetary policy pace for next year. The logic here is quite straightforward:

If the CPI is lower than expected (core CPI falls below 2.6%), the market will get excited. Investors will bet that the Federal Reserve will accelerate interest rate cuts, putting pressure on the dollar, and Bitcoin along with various tokens may thus welcome an influx of hot money, making the market data likely to show a strong bullish candlestick.

On the contrary, if the CPI rises above expectations (for example, breaking 3.2%), the situation will be dire. The expectations for interest rate cuts will be delayed, the dollar will strengthen, and risk assets will generally be sold off. Additionally, the continuous rise in import costs due to U.S. tariff policies may lead to the stickiness of inflation, which could cause the Federal Reserve to choose to remain inactive.

**Practical Tips**

In the first 5 minutes after the CPI data is released, Bitcoin usually experiences fluctuations of around $1200. This is the easiest time to become a retail investor. The strategy is: maintain a light position or short position before the data is released, and only consider entering the market after the direction is completely clear and market sentiment is stable. Institutions have already positioned themselves in advance using quantitative tools, and retail investors blindly following the trend will only end up losing everything.

BTC-0.6%

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BearMarketHustler

· 4h ago

Hmm, it's another night of this exhausting market, really annoying.

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RektRecorder

· 12-22 20:27

The coffee has gone cold, and being in a Short Position is the safest option. --- It's that time again to watch institutions Be Played for Suckers, I choose to stay away. --- Sounds nice, but it really means don't move, wait for the storm to pass. --- 1200 dollars of Fluctuation in the first 5 minutes? I'd rather sleep, since I can't make a profit anyway. --- I'm an expert at Light Position and Short Position, since I always get trapped every time I enter a position, it's better not to enter. --- The truth is: before the data comes out, everyone is blind, the institutions have already made their profits. --- Tomorrow will likely be another day of people getting liquidated, tragic. --- This time, I will honestly just sit on the sidelines and watch the show, a bloody lesson. --- Interest rates can't be lowered, and raising them doesn't work, I might as well just eat and wait to die. --- Being a dumb buyer is so easy, why is it that I never get to make money?

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FOMOSapien

· 12-22 20:27

If I get liquidated tonight, I will live stream eating the screen. Light position really saves me.

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