Recently, the trend of ETH is quite interesting. The market is hovering below 3000, and the Candlestick Chart is all green, but if you only look at this, you really can't determine the underlying strength. What’s most intriguing is that there has been a sudden movement on-chain— a Large Investor withdrew 3365 ETH in one go 7 hours ago, which is no small amount. In the past half month, his transaction records show he has accumulated 30,000 ETH, with a total value of nearly 100 million USD.

But there is a detail worth pondering here. This whale did not simply choose to hold the coins, but instead staked most of the ETH and then extracted 41 million stablecoins through a lending protocol. This operational mode does not seem like a simple bottom fishing; it looks more like preparing firepower and leveraging. So the question arises—does he want to accumulate enough chips at a low point to pump the price, or is he planning to short using the stablecoins? This uncertainty itself can easily cause market fluctuations.

Looking at the technical indicators, the situation on the one-hour level is indeed not optimistic. The price is firmly pressed below 3000, with the MACD's fast line and slow line having completed a death cross below the zero line. The green bars are turning into red bars, but the trading volume is becoming increasingly sluggish. Looking upwards, 3100 is the first resistance level, while 3180 is a stronger pressure area; looking downwards, 2930 barely holds up, but the real support is around 2775. The thickness of the orders on the market also speaks volumes — the thickness of sell orders clearly exceeds that of buy orders, and every rebound seems to be lacking in strength, which is a typical downward trend.

It is important to note that the position of 2930 has not been effectively broken. Once it is broken with significant volume, panic will truly be released, and the subsequent decline may accelerate.

From a trading perspective, the most likely market trend recently is to first test downward, and only after hitting the bottom will there be a rebound. Considering that actions at the level of Large Investors may intensify short-term volatility, if 2930 is indeed broken, there is a high possibility of a quick drop to 2850 to 2775. That position is usually a good opportunity for a rebound.

But remember one thing — the rebounds that occur during a downtrend are usually just opportunities to escape, so don't mistakenly think of them as the beginning of a trend reversal. If you currently have no positions, it's better to stay calm and wait for 2930 to be confirmed as broken, or consider taking action when the rebound returns to the range of 3050 to 3100.