2025/12/22 $BTC 4 hours short term response level after a high increase, but overall still in the adjustment phase in the 下行.

1. Price analysis and moving average (EMA):
The relationship between price and EMA: The current price is around 88,400 in recent cycles, continuously operating above the fast EMA and slow EMA. This is a bullish signal in the short term. The fast EMA has crossed above the slow EMA, forming a "golden cross" based on the viewing data, the golden cross occurs around the 188-189 line.
The slope of the moving average: However, the slope of the two EMA ( the fast line is about 88257, the slow line is about 88044) remains relatively flat and does not form a strong upward angle. This indicates that the bullish momentum is not very strong, but rather resembles a technical rebound after a deep fall.
2. Analyzing the momentum indicator (MACD):
MACD Chart (Histogram): This is the most positive signal. The MACD chart has consistently shown positive values over many cycles, and the values are gradually expanding (from 57.87 to 89.90), indicating that the bullish momentum is being strengthened.
DIF and DEA Lines: The DIF line ( has crossed above the DEA line ) and continues to operate above it, both are below the zero axis but are moving upwards. This confirms the weakening of the short term bearish momentum and the establishment of bullish momentum. However, to confirm the reversal of the larger trend, it is necessary to observe whether the DIF and DEA can effectively cross the zero axis.
3. Analyze overbought and oversold indicators (RSI & StochRSI):
RSI: The current RSI value is around 53-56, which is in a slightly strong neutral zone, neither overbought (>>70) nor oversold (<<30). This leaves room for the price to continue rising, but also indicates that market sentiment is not extremely optimistic.
StochRSI: K of StochRSI ( is around 54-69) and D ( is around 56-60), also lying in the neutral zone, confirming each other with RSI. No extreme overbought signals have appeared, which means that the adjustment pressure in the short term is not large.
4. Analyze trading volume and price behavior:
Important Kline: Observing the data, line 178 (12 in December at 12:00 1928374656574839201 is a large candle with a huge volume of )6467 billion (, which has pulled the price from 87300 to 88513, this can be seen as a starting signal for this recovery and the important support area.
Recently regarding volume and price: The subsequent price increase ) as in lines 182, 184( is accompanied by an increase in volume, indicating that capital continues to participate. However, in recent cycles ) lines 196-199(, trading volume has decreased, and prices are fluctuating narrowly at high levels, suggesting that both buyers and sellers are in a temporary state of balance at the current position, with the market waiting for a new directional choice.
Summary conclusion:
Current status: The market is undergoing a high volatility adjustment phase after a short term recovery. The technical indicators )MACD have crossed golden, the price has surpassed EMA, and the RSI is neutral ( supporting a slight upward trend in the short term.
Major trend context: It is necessary to be cautious that this recovery occurs after a significant fall ) from 90240 on December 14 to 85875 on December 16 12(. Therefore, from a larger cycle perspective, this is likely a corrective recovery in the downtrend, rather than a confirmation of a trend reversal. The price has not yet effectively broken the important previous resistance area.
Analyze the important position:
Important resistance level above:
1. 89,500 90,000 area: This is the recent high point area of the recovery )line 196 touched 88920, line 199 high point 89627(. If it can surpass this area with large volume, it will open up space to test up to 90,300 90,800 )the bottom of the accumulation area from December 13-14 and pressure from the slow EMA(.
2. 91,000 92,000 area: This is the starting point of the price decline in the previous period and is an important psychological threshold, delineating the strength that determines whether the recovery can turn into a reversal or not.
Important support level below:
1. Area 87,200 87,500: This is the bottom of the recent fluctuation range, the current position of the EMA )12( fast line, and also the center of the large candle 178. This is the strongest support recently; if it falls below, the short term recovery structure may be destroyed.
2. Area 86,000 86,500: The bottom area that has been tested multiple times in the previous phase )lines 161, 165(, is the last defense line of the buyers. If this area is lost, it means that the recovery phase has ended, the price will restart the short term downtrend, once again testing the level of 85,000 or even lower.
Summary of proposal:
Currently, it is not advisable to pursue price increases. One may consider looking for buying opportunities near the support area of 87,500-88,000, using 87,200 as a reference for short term stop loss. Attention should be paid to the situation of breaking through the resistance area of 89,500-90,000; if it cannot break through strongly, a double top or head and shoulders pattern may form, at which point it would be wise to consider reducing positions or exiting the market. The market is at a critical juncture determining the direction, and the next breakout will decide the short term trend.
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