According to the latest data, the market believes that the probability of the Fed "holding steady" (keeping the interest rate unchanged) is as high as 81%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is only 18%.

Importantly, this prediction is not just empty talk; it is backed by a real transaction volume of approximately $49.28 million. This means that a significant amount of capital agrees with the judgment that "there will not be an immediate interest rate cut in January next year."
The message for ordinary investors is simple: don’t have too high hopes for an interest rate cut at the beginning of next year; the mainstream market expectation is to "wait and see". When formulating a trading plan, this high-probability scenario needs to be taken into account.
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